With a 47-53 minority, it looks like there are some easy chances to flip 4 seats. If the GOP gets the White House, they will only need three turnovers, as the new VP would hold a 50-50 tiebreaker in the senate.
Onto some that may flip the chamber in '12:
- North Dakota- With retiring Democrat Kent Conrad in an already GOP state, as long as the GOP picks a decent candidate, this is an easy layin.
- Montana- Another GOP state that has Democrat Jon Tester. Since he voted for Obamacare, he's gonna have a tough road here. Congressman Denny Rehberg is the GOP guy, and he's the ons on favorite here. Another pickup.
- Virginia- Let's face it, George Allen doesn't barely lose his seat in 06 if it weren't for self induced errors... even in a bad GOP year. Nonetheless, he's back challenging, and he's the cream of the crop, both parties. Webb, the Democrat, is retiring instead of fighting a rematch. So Dems need a challenger. In a state where Governor McDonnell slaughtered the Dem last year by 18 points, this is very likely a GOP pickup.
- Nebraska- In the red of the reddest states, Dem Ben Nelson only survives by supporting GOP judges, pro-life, for our foreign wars. But since he voted for Obamacare, that was WAY too much for this conservative state. Call it the last cornhusker straw. His approval's in the tank; he's facing a strong candidate in GOP AG Bruning. And it's likely gonna be a nasty night for Nelson, ala Lincoln in 2010. Party is over for these conservative Dems. If they vote for socialism, they will go down, plain and simple!
- Missouri- Claire McCaskill, a devout Obama supporter, won barely in 06. Obama lost there, and Obamacare referundem to get rid of the mandate passed by 70%. And Claire voted for it. Oops!! Chickens may be coming home to roost here. If the GOP has a decent or strong candidate, this is a very likely pickup.
More later, but here's 5 likely switcharoos, before we even start trying.... Of course, we have to watch for a couple seats, namely Nevada. Not sure about GOP incumbent John Ensign.
