Election Predictions

This election will definitely be a referendum on President Obama, and his policies. If you ask Republicans, they have failed..... If you ask Democrats, they have succeeded..... if you ask Independents (who voted for him in large numbers), he has failed... and hence, that's why we're going to see a political massacre tonight....

But will it be?? Is it a typical midterm, where the sitting president loses his share of seats? Is it a midterm in which the natural political fluctuations occur, in which moderates look to balance a government that is owned by Democrats in both chambers of congress, as well as the Executive Office? Or is it just a tsunami, in which the country is sick and tired of how our congress and president thumb their noses at the country and not listen to us? If you look at incredibly unpopular policies that Obama has embraced--- Obamacare, stimulus, ground zero mosque, Arizona immigration, debt, overreach of gov't, etc., that's where you find your answer.

Because of this, here's what I'm guessing. Note- this could be way off, as it's hard to predict! :)

House of Representatives:

The GOP will pick up 53-66 seats. They need 39 to win back the majority. They will have more than enough. In a year in which Democrats took many conservative districts because of momentum and enthusiasm, these seats will go back to their rightful owners. In this, there will be around 37-45 seats that move back to the GOP, because Dems just simply couldn't hold these seats with a liberal congress that pushes government healthcare, cap and trade, huge debts, etc.

There will be another 15-20 seats that the GOP will pick up in districts that are swing, from R +3 to D +3. The main factor of this will be independents. Independents are against congressional Democrats by a roughly 60-40 margin. In this, that means HUGE changes because swing districts usually have roughly the same amount of D's and R's. Plus, some Independents will come out and vote R just as a repudiation of Obama and his policies.

Senate:

Republicans will be in line to pick off many seats, mostly in Democrat turf. Which means most of these seats are in states in which Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans. There will also be easy wins for the GOP in states that lean conservative. These are Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana. The ones in states that lean Democrat that the GOP is favored to win are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Nevada (tossup state with more registered D's).

Assuming the GOP picks up these states, they will be at 7, needing 10 for a senate majority. The other states that may go GOP include West Virginia. This is a state in which there's a Democrat who is popular, and is running square against Obama and his policies (cap and trade, health care, etc.). If the Democrat Manchin loses, this will open things up for the GOP to have a path toward a majority. If Manchin holds on, we may have to wait until 2012 to get a GOP senate majority.

I believe Washington and Colorado will be the closest two states. Republican Dino Rossi has a great chance at upsetting sitting senator Patty Murray in Washington. It's still an uphill climb, as the surrounding Seattle area (King County) still votes in high numbers for liberals. But in this election cycle, a cycle where Murray votes for everything government, this could be the year where she goes down.

The other states in which the GOP has a fighting chance is California. Simply, Carly Fiorina is a more impressive candidate than Barbara Boxer. But because Boxer is a liberal, she still is favored to win.

Here's my predictions for the Senate (Only using change of party predictions)

• Arkansas- Republican challenger Boozman leads going away. The rout is on. GOP pickup.
• Indiana- Republican challenger Dan Coats has this open seat wrapped up big. GOP pickup.
• North Dakota- Republican Governor John Hoeven has this seat wrapped up. He's been up by upwards of 40 points in the polls. GOP pickup.
• Wisconsin- Republican challenger Ron Johnson leads incumbent Dem Russ Feingold by over 7 points for the past month. Should range between 7-12 point victory. GOP pickup.
• Pennsylvania- Republican challenger Pat Toomey leads Dem Joe Sestak by around 4-5 points. Should be a Toomey victory, even in Dem state like PA. GOP pickup.
• Illinois- Republican Mark Kirk looks to hold off Dem Giannoulius for Obama's old seat. Even in this Dem state, Kirk has led by 3-4 pts. 80% chance Kirk wins. GOP pickup.
• Colorado- Republican challenger Ken Buck has led incumbent Michael Bennet on the last 10 polls. Still close, but probable Buck win by 2-6 points. 80% GOP pickup.
• Nevada- GOP challenger Sharron Angle continues to lead Majority leader Harry Reid by 3-4 points. I'm a little nervous, as the unions will be out in force for Reid. However, with his huge unpopularity, I think Angle wins. 60% GOP pickup.
• Washington- Challenger Dino Rossi has the deck stacked against him against incumbent Patty Murray because of voter registration. However, if this is a wave election, Rossi has a decent chance. 30% chance of GOP pickup. This should be a 0-4 point win by either side, very close.
• West Virginia- Republican John Raese trails Dem Joe Manchin. Reason- Manchin is denouncing Obama in a state that very much dislikes our current president. Because of this, Raese still has a chance, though likely a Dem retention. 25% chance of GOP pickup.
• California- With everything being equal, GOP'er Carly Fiorina is a much more impressive candidate, better speaker, has fresh ideas, etc. But in California, Boxer will get the lions share of SF and LA, and likely a victory. Fiorina's chance is at 15-20% in my mind.

If the GOP only gets 9 seats, they may try to entice moderate Dems Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson to switch over to caucus with the GOP. If that were the case, the GOP would have the majority.

I'm an enemy

What happened to Obama's hopey changey message? Now, he goes on a Spanish radio station and tells latinos not to sit on their hands and not vote, but rather to go out and vote to "punish their enemies". Wow, breathtaking. So those who think illegal immigration should be enforced are enemies?

What world is Obama living in? It seems like a banana republic at times during these past two years. I warned our country that change doesn't happen because somebody says it will. They need to have a track record, a past of showing positive change in order to believe it. So when there's a senator who votes "present" on difficult votes, and was a community agitator, that hardly qualifies you as being a president of the free world.

Defund NPR

Why does NPR get a pass from the liberal media for not being "straight down the middle reporting"? Well, because the liberal media doesn't think they are liberal, so why would they think NPR is? Last week, liberal commentator Juan Williams was fired from NPR for giving a personal feeling that he feels uncomfortable at airports when he sees a muslim dressed in "muslim garb". Williams wasn't giving an opinion, he was portraying a personal feeling. Truth be told- who in our country wouldn't think this? I surely do!

Anyway, NPR fired him for expressing his opinion on Fox News, and that he's not allowed to do this. Even though often shows a liberal perspective, he was fired. It's more than obvious that he was fired for being a regular contributor to Fox News. If it were for offering an opinion, as the NPR CEO said, why do the other commentators get fired for offering theirs? Here's an example of two NPR employees who gave their opinion on things:

• Cokie Roberts saying that pro-lifers who are against partial birth abortion are basically nuts.
• Nina Totenburg saying former conservative senator Jesse Helms deserves aids for his beliefs, or at least his grandkids deserve aids. WOW!!!!
  

And these two correspondents still have jobs at NPR. And there's no evidence to show they were even repremended for these comments. Could it be because they were extreme liberal perspectives? I wonder!!

The fact is, Fox News dominates the ratings, and liberals don't like it. They don't like it because Fox shows BOTH sides to the argument. And the reason why liberals think it's a conservative network is because they aren't used to seeing a news outlet not being completely in the tank for liberal politicians or causes--- see Katie Couric, Brian Williams, Dan Rather, Tom Brokaw, Peter Jennings, etc etc etc..

And good for Williams. He's now a multi-millionaire as a contributor for Fox. Take that NPR. And why again do our taxes go for funding an outlet like NPR? Don't we have enough options that are free, as in tax-free?

Foreign Donations in politics

What's with all the hoopla over foreign donations? Is it true that every time we turn on the TV, we are flooded with ads denouncing a certain candidate? Yes. Is it very annoying at times? You bet! However, as the Obama Administration tries to define this as the Republicans spending hundreds of millions to defeat Democrats, let's take a look at a few of the facts, why don't we:

• Obama promised to take federal funding if his opponent did in '08. After McCain decided to take federal funding, Obama decided to opt out and take personal money, therefore unlimited. So not only does Obama go back on a promise, but he does EXACTLY what he's complaining the GOP is doing in '10.
• Of the top 10 spending organizations, 6 of them are liberally funded. And the tops is the ACSME municipal union.
  
• Obama accepted over $400 million in donations that didn't have a name attached to it, so he can't say one side is playing hardball with donations, but he isn't. Once again, he did EXACTLY what he's complaining about now.
• In fact, in 2008, liberals spent over a hundred million dollars more than conservatives on political races.
• Argument liberals make- The unions have a name behind them and some of these donations don't. Well, that doesn't hold water, as many of these union members who pay monthly dues, don't even support these ads. It's the brass that decides to spend the money on this.
• Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove- These were the bogeymen of the Obama argument of receiving foreign donations. However, there is ZERO evidence any foreign donations have seeped into advertising for or against a candidate. Wasn't Obama supposed to be about hope and change, and not fear? Oops!!!
• If Obama didn't like the law of not having more transparency, he should have done two things: #1- Don't receive funds for his campaign that didn't have names attached to them. And #2, change the law. Remember, he had the Presidency and both houses of congress. Where's his excuse?? Sounds like fear-mongering to the far left political base.. the base in which Obama stands.
  

When in doubt, Democrats blast pro-lifers

This is exactly why I, as a Christian, would NEVER vote for a Democrat!!! My morals say that the political issue of life is the most important. With that being said, any pro-life Democrat is simply disagreeing with their party's leadership that will always get their way. In other words, the party platform will support the most pro-choice policies possible.. (ie- Mexico City policy, partial birth abortion, parent notification, etc.).

Barbara Boxer is saying that opponent Carly Fiorina is a pro-life zealot. So because Fiorina believes in life, Boxer has to scare the electorate about Fiorina's beliefs. This is absolutely disgusting by Boxer. And since Michele and Barack have campaigned for Boxer, apparently they endorse this type of advertising.

With that being said... How can ANY pro-life Christian support Democrats in our country????

Change won't happen under Obama says his supporters

"Hope and Change" were the main themes for Obama's rallying cry in 2008. The ability to work across party lines and get things done in Washington; to restore the civility; to avoid the "pettiness" that divides us; to do the "will" of the people.... blah, blah, blah...

Wouldn't it be nice....

Instead, we all know that with majorities in the House and Senate, Obama hasn't worked with Republicans on anything. He may say it's the GOP's fault, but wasn't he supposed to rise above this? Especially since all of his policies have the majority of all Americans against (Arizona immigration, ground zero mosque, healthcare, cap and trade, stimulus, etc.).

Now, according to the latest Associated Press poll, 63 percent of Obama backers in 2008 do NOT believe that Obama is employing the change that he promised. If 63 percent of his supporters think this, imagine how many McCain supporters think Obama has changed things for the better in Washington.

Because of the above, being that we live in a politically center-right nation, this far left President is going to see his party receive a bloodbath in 2 weeks.

25 percent of Democrats want Obamacare repealed

Do I need to say more? This is nothing short of astonishing!! We know that about 9 in 10 Republicans and 7 in 10 Independents want it repealed, but to bleed Democrats at a 1 in 4 clip has to be putting Obama in fetal position about now. This is according to a The Hill/ANGA poll.

Say goodbye to the House!

Senate has a good chance as well!!

Will the White House be gone too in 2012???