Draining the Swamp

After overwhelmingly winning the 2006 elections, Nancy Pelosi promised to "drain the swamps of corruption". After all, corruption was a big reason why Democrats took over the Senate and the House that year. See Mark Foley, Duke Cunningham, Ted Stevens, et al.

Now that they are in power, the corruption scandals seem to be favoring the party in power, the Democrats. However, Pelosi remains disturbingly quiet. What a surprise, when the other side does it, she shouts from the rooftops. When her side does it, all is quiet about her and her parties' self righteousness.

Examples of said Democrat corruption:

• Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich auctioning off Obama's Senate seat to the highest bidder. Darn wiretaps caught him though.
• Charlie Rangel- Not paying taxes on income and speaking engagements, as well as taking Caribbean trips on the Governments dime. Worse though, he heads the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.
• Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez, who racked up $420,000 through a series of suspicious real-estate deals.
• Texas Rep. Silvestre Reyes, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, came under scrutiny this fall for questionable earmarking.
• West Virginia Rep. Alan Mollohan has been under investigation for a separate earmarking mess.
• Banking Senate Chair Chris Dodd taking sweetheart loan deals from Countrywide, saving over 80K.
• North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad also taking sweetheart deals from Countrywide.
• Baltimore Mayor Sheila A. Dixon was charged with 12 counts of felony theft, perjury, fraud and misconduct in office, becoming the city's first sitting mayor to be criminally indicted.
• Former Rep. William Jefferson was found with over 90K in cash in his freezer, from bribes and other illegal activity.
• New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is accused of rewarding a contract company over 1M worth of work for contributing to his campaign. The trial starts soon....
• Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaragoisa had an affair with a news anchor, while lying about it. He gave the anchor preferential treatment with interviews and finances.
• Former VP Candidate John Edwards had an affair with one of his staffers, while his wife is battling a life-threatening cancer. He lied about it until finally getting caught with pictures. Classy!

Chicago Politics and "Change"

It's starting.....

Regarding Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich's indictment:

Barry Obama said today that he didn't speak to the governor about the senate seat being vacated by Obama. However, on November 23rd, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, said that Blago and Obama have discussed it..... And now today, Axelrod is laying on the grenade, saying that he misspoke, and that indeed, Obama didn't speak with the governor. Do we really believe this?

Remember, Blago and Obama have something big in common, besides being a part of the liberal gutter Chicago politics: They were both under the convicted felon Tony Rezko's umbrella, as Rezko helped start both of their political careers in Chicago.

Dodgers offseason

Well, as we approach the Winter Meetings for baseball, it will be very interesting to see what the Dodgers do. There are plenty of holes, yet plenty of freed up salary to go after some players. I will say that I'm very annoyed by our owner, Jaime McCourt asking the fans if it's more important to sign a high priced free agent pitcher, or build little league fields in the community. She fails to realize these examples are exclusive from one another. Community involvement and fielding a good baseball team should not be a choice of either or. If success results on the field, more $$ and revenue will come off it. And of course Dodger fans want the best player possible. The McCourts are the owners to win, not be charity to the community.

As to what we should do, I've stated in previous posts the need to keep Furcal. Unfortunately, Furcal and his agent are wanting a four year deal. Being that he has only had one injury free season as a Dodger, they are not willing to give Furcal that kind of contract. However, the Oakland A's are the front runners, and appear like the ones that will match Furcal's contract desires. It's a shame, but part of the business.

The good news regarding Manny Ramirez- Even though the Dodgers have taken their initial offer of 2 years/45 Mil. off the table, we've offered him salary arbitration. If he accepts, he should make as much, if not more than A-Rod. Even though it would only be for one year, it would make him the highest paid player for a single season in the history of the game. A lot of the Dodgers optimism of keeping Ramirez has to do with the lack of interest by other big revenue clubs. The Yankees want Sabathia and more pitching, plus they already have three corner outfielders who make a ton of money. The Mets want starting pitching and a closer. The Phillies don't appear interested. Forget about the Red Sox. The Angels want Teixeira and/or Sabathia. The Giants have said they won't pony up that money for him. Who else is there? The Dodgers still appear to be the hands on favorite to keep Manny, whether it be through the one year arbitration, or if they hammer out a 2-3 year deal with an option.

My dad keeps telling me that the Dodgers might be better off letting Furcal go, letting Berroa take over. This would allow more money to be freed up for other signings. Although I understand the point and it makes sense, I'd still LOVE for Furcal to come back.

Infield takes shape- Casey Blake's agent says the Dodgers and Twins are the favorites to land him. If the Dodgers were to get him, it would possibly allow the infield to be set, given the above scenario with Berroa.

Catcher- The need to get a decent backup to Russell Martin is important. Martin is so valuable, that we cannot wear him down toward the end of every season. For that reason, we need to get a capable backup, such as a Javier Valentin, who is available. Since Martin is capable at 3B, he can give Blake a blow once in a while as well, allowing Valentin to catch 30-40 games. This would help Martin immensely.

Starting Pitching- Do we sign a middle rotation guy? If so, our pecking order would be Billingsley, Kuroda, new guy, Kershaw, McDonald. This doesn't look strong enough for me. However, it would be good enough to compete for the NL title. But is that all we want? If we can get a guy like Sabathia, that would turn everything on its head. We'd immediately become the favorite in the division. And if Manny accepted arbitration, we'd have a huge payroll next year, but then Schmidt and Jones contracts would be gone.

Outfield- Ethier and Matt Kemp are definite starters. If Manny comes back, there's our outfield, with Pierre being the fourth outfielder. Ethier, Kemp, and Pierre is simply not a good enough outfield, especially if Furcal doesn't come back. But the question looms, who bats leadoff?

Here's my best guess on who the everyday lineup will be, on the eve of the Winter Meetings, where a lot can happen.

CF- Matt Kemp
2B- Blake DeWitt
LF- Manny Ramirez
RF- Andre Ethier
1B- James Loney
C- Russell Martin
3B- Casey Blake
SS- Angel Berroa
P- Chad Billingsley

P- Hiroki Kuroda
P- Clayton Kershaw
P- James McDonald
P- FA pitcher to be named

Small favors from God

My friend said that to me in an email after it appeared Coleman had beaten Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate. As of now, it's still under recount. However, Coleman has a lead that shouldn't be overtaken unless for a miracle.

Also, Saxby Chambliss was able to hold onto his seat in Georgia. So the Democrats will not have a Super-Majority in the Senate, Thank God!!

Defeat

Well, this was expected. The outcome of Tuesday's election was not at all surprising. In fact, "only" having a 53-46 loss isn't too bad considering what it could have been.

Ladies and gentleman, I now give you President elect Barack Hussein Obama. Sounds weird, doesn't it? Anyway, I am very concerned that he will fight against all of the values and beliefs so many of Americans stand for. Take four examples, for instance that covers economic, social, and foreign policy issues:

• Obama promising to undo NAFTA that Republican congress and Clinton Admin negotiated. Aren't Democrats the ones that complain that Bush did things on his own too much? Isn't it ironic that it isn't a big deal when Obama wants to do the same.
• Obama promising to install the FOCA (Freedom of Choice Act). This basically takes out any restrictions on abortion throughout a pregnancy.
• Obama's promise to be a 21st Robinhood. Seriously, why does anybody believe that taking from one group and handing it out to another is good for anybody? Basically this equates to a Bible analogy. Instead of giving fish to the hungry, the hungry should learn how to fish and take care of themselves.
• Iraq- Obama is still debating 2003's decision to go into Iraq. And based on that decision, he seems inclined to just let Iraq go down in defeat. Apparently, Obama knows more about our military options in Iraq than General Petraeus does.
  

Additional races and amendments and props I'm watching

Besides the big one, here are some important Senate, Congressional, Gubernatorial, State, props, and amendments I'm closely watching. I'll add a quick blurp as to why it's important.

• California Prop 8: Defines marriage between ONE man and ONE woman. Maintains equal rights and benefits for same sex couples, but doesn't redefine marriage. NOTE: This passed in the liberal state of California several years back (Amendment 22), but was reversed by the CA liberal Supreme Court 4-3. My old home church, The Rock, and our pastor Miles McPherson is one of the leading vocal backers. Big bands, such as Third Day, have come to play music at the church in support of this prop. Yes
• Colorado Amendment 47: Union workers should be able to vote privately, and have their vote counted, rather than the higher ups determine their vote. Yes
• Colorado Amendment 48: Defines personhood at moment of conception. Yes
• Colorado Senate seat: Udall is ahead in the polls against Bob Schaffer. Vote Schaffer.
• Colorado State Senate: Matt Fries. He introduced Jess and I to Fort Collins. Told us about the town, what churches are around here, etc. Great guy!
• Colorado Rep: Marilyn Musgrave
• Colorado Rep: Bob McCluskey
• Pennsylvania Rep: Iraq War Vet John Russell over John Murtha. Murtha last week called his district 'racist' and 'redneck'. Also accused our troops of murder in Iraq. Murtha has been in the House for 34 years. This would be AWESOME if he got defeated. It's close right now.
• Washington Gubernatorial: Republican Dino Rossi against incumbent Chris Gregoire. In case you missed 04, Rossi initially won, until the 2nd recount, when Gregoire went ahead. Many independent analysts say Rossi was cheated and the fight was stopped when Gregoire finally went ahead. Even the liberal Seattle Times endorsed Rossi.
• Kentucky Senate: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in dog fight with Bruce Lunsford. I'm not a big fan of McConnell, but he's better than Lunsford. Would be a huge loss in red state, and having the leader in the senate defeated.
• Minnesota Senate: Now if Al Franken defeats Norm Coleman, I will consider my wife's home state officially delusional (I think they already are, but it's not the point right now). Franken is a communist hack, he has no place in leadership. The Independent candidate may hurt Coleman's chances, just like Perot killing Bush Sr. chances against Clinton in 92. I still think Coleman wins, but it's one to watch.
• North Carolina Senate: Elizabeth Dole is about to get defeated by Kay Hagan. Dole has great name recognition and all, but I personally am not impressed with her. I like her political views of course, but she lead the Senate re-election fight in 06. It was bad anyway, but she was brutal in interviews defending the GOP's case. I could have done a better job than her. :)
• Oregon Senate: This would be a landmark victory for Dems. Gordon Smith is the last Republican Senator on the West Coast. He's in a dead heat, but I believe he'll go down because BHO is popular in my Dad's home state. Hey, at least my Dad thinks Obama is crazy. I couldn't be any more proud, Pops!
• Louisiana Senate: Mary Landrieu is about the lone Democrat that has a chance at losing. The state is trending even more strongly GOP, but she may be moderate enough to still win.
• Nebraska Senate: It will stay in GOP hands, but thank God Hagel is retiring. I actually wish he would have ran again, so he could suffer the humiliation of getting pounded in a GOP primary.

Polls to watch Tuesday

Though Republicans and Conservatives (sometimes two in one) have little to be happy about right now politically, there still is hope. I've followed politics for several cycles now, and know that what pundits say doesn't necessarily determine what will actually happen.

Right now, if I were a betting man, I'd say 75-25 for Obama. But you have to understand that 25% can be hit at any time. Did anybody give the Giants a chance to beat the Patriots? I'd say less than 25% did.

So, what has to happen on election day for McCain to still win? Here are some key points looking at the political landscape and at some key states:

1. There are still many, some polls say as much as 18% undecided voters. Most pundits expect the majority to break for McCain. Reason being? If one is on the fence with Obama still, they most likely aren't very comfortable with him. Also, there are NO undecided blacks. And when you factor McCain's usually 15 point advantage among whites, the numbers say McCain will get the vast majority of the undecideds.
2. Joe The Plumber- Many independents are economically conservative and socially liberal. Since social issues are not as front as center this year (gay marriage, abortion, poverty), economics take rein. And many of the independents and soft democrats worry about the government taking more of their money. And Obama admitted as much by wanting to "spread the wealth" around. This isn't popular to most Americans. Fact is, Obama will raise dividends, capital gains, on the majority of small businesses (who fall under the "rich" category), estate tax..... And don't forget the welfare handout- 40% of the 95% that Obama is promising tax cuts to, aren't even paying federal income taxes. This is essentially a government handout, eg- socialism...

States to focus on Tuesday:

1. Ohio- Obama leads most polls now, around the average of 4%. I don't believe it's 4% though. I still think, call me crazy, that McCain will win here. If he doesn't, which is very possible, the numbers don't add up to McCain winning the Electoral College.
2. Florida- As Ohio, Obama is showing a lead. But again, I still think McCain will win. The absentee ballots in Florida, which historically go around 70-30 for Republicans, aren't taken into account in most polls. This is still part of the South, albeit its own beast. Alas, I think McCain will still win. As I said in earlier posts, Giuliani (national security hawks), Gov. Crist (Centrists), Senator Lieberman (Jews) will help tremendously.
3. North Carolina- Once again, McCain needs this state. He's running behind, but again, he has a great chance at still winning here. Like I pointed out a few months ago in a post, blacks and the university triangle around Raleigh and Durham, will come out in droves for Obama. But NC is still a GOP bastion and has a huge military influence.
4. Virginia- A few months ago, I never thought Obama would hold a commanding lead. But he is showing a 6-7 point lead. GOP has won 13 of 14 presidential elections, so the GOP has hope still, at least historically.
5. Colorado- This looks like it's going to Obama. There's only 9 EV here, but it would be a huge loss for McCain.
6. Missouri- Toss up. Still McCain has to be favored here.
7. Nevada- Toss up. Obama is slightly favored. Only 5 EV here.
8. New Mexico- Wind at Obama's back, he should win.
9. Pennsylvania- This is the first state that Bush didn't win. The above 8 were red states in 04. If McCain can stun Obama here, that would be the opening he needs.
10. New Hampshire- Obama has the edge, but McCain has a big following here. 70-30 Obama in my mind. Only 4 EV here.

All in all, here's the scenario I can see if McCain can win:

If McCain can keep Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida, which I think he can, he has a chance. Keeping these states, he can lose Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), and New Hampshire (4) that Bush won in 04. The big kicker is McCain HAS to win Pennsylvania to make up for these losses. Possible, but it's like McCain getting an inside straight. If all of this happens, McCain wins 273-265 (270 Electoral Votes is the magic number).