These questions come on the heels of conservative and Tea Party darling Christine O'Donnell beating the established moderate Republican Mike Castle in Delaware. In the early going, it was all but going to be a Castle coronation. And with Castle being a popular "moderate" Republican in the House of Representatives for so many terms, most election analysts had him cruising to an easy victory over Democrat Chris Coons. Now that O'Donnell has won, these analysts say that Coons is on his way to an easy victory. Yet there is such a strong case for the anti-establishment candidate. But will this work in a very liberal state, such as Delaware? Does O'Donnell have enough Tea Party and anti-establishment support for a conservative to win in a seat held by longtime liberal Joe Biden?
If you look at several examples of an upstart candidate this election cycle, it may offer a few tips:
- Republican Scott Brown from Massachusetts had a groundswell of support late in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy's seat. Brown campaigned on bringing power back to the people; and to oppose Obamacare. He succeeded, and won in a very liberal state. In fact, some analysts say is the most liberal state in the nation. He has supported a few of Obama's initiatives, but still has support from the Republican establishment.
- Republican nominee Joe Miller from Alaska- Miller upset incumbent Lisa Murkowsi in the primary a few weeks ago. Miller had the anti-establishment, Tea Party support. But Miller brings bonafides to the table- judge, West Point grad, veteran.
- Republican Sharron Angle from Nevada- Most analysts think she was the weakest of the GOP primary candidates. However, she received the support of the Tea Party and virtually cruised to victory in the Primary. She is running neck and neck with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. In this case, it' s a50/50 proposition. On one hand, you can say that Reid is so unpopular that Adolph Hitler would have a chance against him. On the other hand, could Sue Lowden have cruised to victory had she beaten Angle in the primary? Who knows. The fact is, Angle's supporters are probably a lot more fired up to go vote for her than are Reid's. In addition, there will be many in Nevada who will just vote against Reid no matter the opponent because of him sheparding such unpopular policies through the Senate-- Obamacare, Stimulus, Auto bailouts, etc.
- Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky. He was the outsider who really had an easy victory. He's a lot in the mold of his father, Ron Paul. However, this should not affect Paul in any way. He's running for a Senate seat in a very anti-Obama state of Kentucky. Paul will win easily.
- Marco Rubio of Florida- When Rubio stepped in to challenge popular Governor Charlie Crist, most GOP'ers put their weight behind Crist, the establishment pick. However, as the clarifications in policy positions have come out, Rubio was blowing Crist out of the water in GOP polling. Because of this, Crist left the GOP (after promising not to do so) and is running as an Independent. One year ago, nobody gave Rubio any shot. Today, many are saying not only is he a lock to be Florida's junior Senator, but that he is a rising star in the Republican party.
