Here's an interesting trend that's taking place:
Just six months into his presidency, Obama's Approval index is souring quickly.
This rating shows those who strongly approve and those who strongly disapprove of his performance.
This week according to Rasmussen, 38% strongly disapprove of his performance, while 30% strongly approve.
This -8% number is not good, especially so early into a presidential term.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Obama extending lead in battleground states
Things haven't looked so bleak for the McCain campaign. More on him in another post. The fact is, Obama is riding the winds of a economic crisis. It's a political gold mine that keeps on giving for Obama. As long as it stays on Page One, it helps him. It's nothing he's saying or did that increases peoples thoughts on him, it's that we have a Republican President and if things aren't going peachy, the party will got blamed.
- Quinnipiac state polls have Obama blistering McCain in a few key states. If these polls are closely true, game over.
- Florida- Obama is up 50-43. Obama has spent heavily here, and McCain hasn't spent a dime here. It is telling though, that there was an extreme oversampling of Democrats and blacks in this poll. And an undersampling of Cubans (reliably Republican). In my mind, I don't believe this poll until I see a few others like it.
- Pennsylvania- After being neck and neck, all of a sudden Obama is up 54-39. This isn't just an outlier, it's wrong. There is NO way Obama wins this state by 15. Not even close. This state, if Obama wins, will be no more than 5 points. However, big numbers like this only help a candidate.
- Ohio- 51-42 for Obama. Again, this poll is not to be believed unless there is another poll to support this.
In summation, the winds are very heavily at the back of Obama, and he has gained clearly on many battleground states. But these huge leads outside the margin of error truly cannot be believed. They just can't.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama in clear lead with 40 days to go
Obama is in the clear lead now nationally, and is looking stronger in a few important states. This has to do completely with the economic crisis. And despite whose fault it is (I believe all parties involved are at fault), the party in power at the top will get blamed. And to some regard, rightfully so. But of course the Democrat controlled congress has a whopping 17% approval rating this week, so they shouldn't be let off the hook either.
A few updated polls:
Wash Post/ABC Poll: Obama leads 52-43. This is the biggest lead for either side to date. Yet this is a heavily skewered poll. It's 38 Dems to 28% Republicans polled. Because of this, and matching to other polls, this seems to be an outlier.
Rasmussen: Obama leads 49-47. I'd say this is spot on. Like I've stated before, Rasmussen is clearly the most accurate of all polls. I'd believe anywhere between a 1-4 Obama lead.
Gallup: Obama leads 47-44. Pretty accurate.
A few new state polls and/or my prognosis as of now in order of interest and importance....
Colorado: Obama leads in about every recent poll now. Some have him up here as much as 7 points. That's inaccurate. However, Rasmussen has it a 2 point lead, which seems reasonable. It's still going to be a barn burner here. I'm a little less convinced of a McCain victory than I was 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's still 50-50 at this point, as there are still 72,000 more registered Republicans in the state. Will come down to independents, which is slightly less than Republicans, and slightly more than Democrats.
New Hampshire: McCain gets his first lead here, 49-47. This is great news for McCain. Like I've stated repeatedly, this is the one New England State that can go to McCain. He has a good chance. The independents love McCain, and now the base is shored up with Palin.
Florida: Rasmussen has McCain still up 51-46 here. Although a few polls have it tighter. Once again, McCain will win here I believe. A new Hispanic poll in FL says McCain is up 51-41. If that's right, game over. Obama has to dominate all minorities in this state to have a chance. Although Cubans cannot stand the socialist minded Democrats, which fits right into Obama's stances on the government. Reminds them too much of the hated Castro.
Pennsylvania: Obama leads within the margin of error. If Obama doesn't win here, I say game, set, match for McCain. This state to me is more interesting than the others because Clinton trounced Obama here, and it's been reported that many conservative Democrats are scared to death of Obama. But when you vote Democrat your whole life, do you change at this point? Philly and Pittsburgh will vote heavily for Obama, especially with expected high black turnout. But the rest of the state is for McCain to take. Obama has the edge, but wouldn't be surprised if McCain pulled the shocker.
Michigan: The second most interesting state to me. I'm SHOCKED Obama leads by 4-5 points here. As I explained in a previous entry, with Obama's ties to a convicted mayor of Detroit, a very unpopular Governor, and many social conservative Democrats (home of Reagan Democrats), I'd expect McCain to do better here at this point. If Romney were McCain's choice, it may have made a difference, being that Romney has deep roots here. Obama has the edge, especially with blacks in Detroit, and union workers who are reliant on government intervention and help. However, the Detroit suburbs could not stand the indicted Kilpatrick, so will he help bring Obama down? Probably not.
Wisconsin: Hair whisker close the past two elections. Obama is up by a couple points. I see him winning by roughly .05-2 points here. A lot of pasty white liberals, plus a university town so liberal and whacky, they rival Berkeley and Boulder. Note: That is not a compliment to be compared to those places.
Ohio: Still McCain's to lose. He's up a few points still. If Obama wins here, he will win the election easily.
New Mexico: Within the margin of error, but consistently with Obama ahead. With many Hispanics dependent on the government, a socialist type politician, read Obama, should get them in droves. It's Obama's to lose here.
Nevada: Similar to NM, more registered Dems here, but McCain still has the edge. Living in a neighboring state also helps here.
Virginia: Very close, with McCain hanging on by a thread. McCain has to win here. If not, he has to steal a Michigan or Pennsylvania. Northern Virginia trending Dems, but the southerners are still strong GOP country. I still say McCain wins, with help from the heavy backing of vets.
Missouri: McCain has been ahead in every poll I've seen, usually around 5 points at least. He should win here, roughly by 4-6 points in my opinion. It's been said over and over that the GOP doesn't win the Presidency without the Show Me State.
North Carolina: McCain still leads by around 3-6 points in most polls. It's McCain's to lose. However, Obama will draw huge black support and university support.
Minnesota: Per usual, the race is neck and neck, ala 00 and 04. Yet the Dems seem to win here by a couple points. Being how far off liberal and deranged the Minneapolis area is, I'm shocked Republicans can even come this close.
Oregon: Most polls say Obama is up 4-7 points. He should win here easily. I'd say anywhere between 5-10 points.
New Jersey: Per usual, there will be a few polls that show it close. It won't be a blowout, as many Democrats here are socially liberal, but also want our country protected (they will vote Obama and pray that he shows strength).
Indiana: Polls show McCain up 5-8 points. Obama is spending heavily in his neighboring state to try to close in. Tall order, not happening unless it's a blowout.
Easy street for McCain, to varying degrees: Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alaska, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Wyoming
Easy street for Obama, to varying degrees: California, Washington, Illinois, New York, Mass, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, DC
All in all, at this point, I'd say Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Virginia will be the bellweather for this election. Whomever can grab three of these five will most likely win, if this election remains close. But like I state above, if Pennsylvania or Michigan turn red, or Ohio or Florida turn blue, those WILL be game changers.
Speaking of close, it won't be close if.....
Obama gets Ohio. That means Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania are safe for Obama because Ohio is more conservative than the others.
Obama gets Florida. Unlikely, but if he pulls it out, McCain's math to 270 gets very difficult, if not impossible.
Obama gets Colorado and Virginia. These account for 22 votes, essentially the same as Ohio and Florida.
McCain gets Michigan or Pennsylvania. If so, that means Ohio, and probably Wisconsin go his way as well, as they are more conservative.
McCain retains the Western States: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. If so, Obama's only hopes would be to steal Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, and hope he holds everything else in place.
At this point, I'd call it 55-45 Obama as to who wins. With so many variables left- fallout of crisis, McCain postponing his campaign, the debates, potential gaffes, etc... In all honesty, if Obama doesn't win, that would be the ultimate embarrassment for Democrats. Republicans have several nooses around them: An unpopular, albeit successful war going on, sour economy, 2 straight terms with one party in the White House, and so on.
I'll make further predictions as events plays out, and continue to update my poll predictions.
A few updated polls:
Wash Post/ABC Poll: Obama leads 52-43. This is the biggest lead for either side to date. Yet this is a heavily skewered poll. It's 38 Dems to 28% Republicans polled. Because of this, and matching to other polls, this seems to be an outlier.
Rasmussen: Obama leads 49-47. I'd say this is spot on. Like I've stated before, Rasmussen is clearly the most accurate of all polls. I'd believe anywhere between a 1-4 Obama lead.
Gallup: Obama leads 47-44. Pretty accurate.
A few new state polls and/or my prognosis as of now in order of interest and importance....
Colorado: Obama leads in about every recent poll now. Some have him up here as much as 7 points. That's inaccurate. However, Rasmussen has it a 2 point lead, which seems reasonable. It's still going to be a barn burner here. I'm a little less convinced of a McCain victory than I was 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's still 50-50 at this point, as there are still 72,000 more registered Republicans in the state. Will come down to independents, which is slightly less than Republicans, and slightly more than Democrats.
New Hampshire: McCain gets his first lead here, 49-47. This is great news for McCain. Like I've stated repeatedly, this is the one New England State that can go to McCain. He has a good chance. The independents love McCain, and now the base is shored up with Palin.
Florida: Rasmussen has McCain still up 51-46 here. Although a few polls have it tighter. Once again, McCain will win here I believe. A new Hispanic poll in FL says McCain is up 51-41. If that's right, game over. Obama has to dominate all minorities in this state to have a chance. Although Cubans cannot stand the socialist minded Democrats, which fits right into Obama's stances on the government. Reminds them too much of the hated Castro.
Pennsylvania: Obama leads within the margin of error. If Obama doesn't win here, I say game, set, match for McCain. This state to me is more interesting than the others because Clinton trounced Obama here, and it's been reported that many conservative Democrats are scared to death of Obama. But when you vote Democrat your whole life, do you change at this point? Philly and Pittsburgh will vote heavily for Obama, especially with expected high black turnout. But the rest of the state is for McCain to take. Obama has the edge, but wouldn't be surprised if McCain pulled the shocker.
Michigan: The second most interesting state to me. I'm SHOCKED Obama leads by 4-5 points here. As I explained in a previous entry, with Obama's ties to a convicted mayor of Detroit, a very unpopular Governor, and many social conservative Democrats (home of Reagan Democrats), I'd expect McCain to do better here at this point. If Romney were McCain's choice, it may have made a difference, being that Romney has deep roots here. Obama has the edge, especially with blacks in Detroit, and union workers who are reliant on government intervention and help. However, the Detroit suburbs could not stand the indicted Kilpatrick, so will he help bring Obama down? Probably not.
Wisconsin: Hair whisker close the past two elections. Obama is up by a couple points. I see him winning by roughly .05-2 points here. A lot of pasty white liberals, plus a university town so liberal and whacky, they rival Berkeley and Boulder. Note: That is not a compliment to be compared to those places.
Ohio: Still McCain's to lose. He's up a few points still. If Obama wins here, he will win the election easily.
New Mexico: Within the margin of error, but consistently with Obama ahead. With many Hispanics dependent on the government, a socialist type politician, read Obama, should get them in droves. It's Obama's to lose here.
Nevada: Similar to NM, more registered Dems here, but McCain still has the edge. Living in a neighboring state also helps here.
Virginia: Very close, with McCain hanging on by a thread. McCain has to win here. If not, he has to steal a Michigan or Pennsylvania. Northern Virginia trending Dems, but the southerners are still strong GOP country. I still say McCain wins, with help from the heavy backing of vets.
Missouri: McCain has been ahead in every poll I've seen, usually around 5 points at least. He should win here, roughly by 4-6 points in my opinion. It's been said over and over that the GOP doesn't win the Presidency without the Show Me State.
North Carolina: McCain still leads by around 3-6 points in most polls. It's McCain's to lose. However, Obama will draw huge black support and university support.
Minnesota: Per usual, the race is neck and neck, ala 00 and 04. Yet the Dems seem to win here by a couple points. Being how far off liberal and deranged the Minneapolis area is, I'm shocked Republicans can even come this close.
Oregon: Most polls say Obama is up 4-7 points. He should win here easily. I'd say anywhere between 5-10 points.
New Jersey: Per usual, there will be a few polls that show it close. It won't be a blowout, as many Democrats here are socially liberal, but also want our country protected (they will vote Obama and pray that he shows strength).
Indiana: Polls show McCain up 5-8 points. Obama is spending heavily in his neighboring state to try to close in. Tall order, not happening unless it's a blowout.
Easy street for McCain, to varying degrees: Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alaska, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Wyoming
Easy street for Obama, to varying degrees: California, Washington, Illinois, New York, Mass, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, DC
All in all, at this point, I'd say Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Virginia will be the bellweather for this election. Whomever can grab three of these five will most likely win, if this election remains close. But like I state above, if Pennsylvania or Michigan turn red, or Ohio or Florida turn blue, those WILL be game changers.
Speaking of close, it won't be close if.....
Obama gets Ohio. That means Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania are safe for Obama because Ohio is more conservative than the others.
Obama gets Florida. Unlikely, but if he pulls it out, McCain's math to 270 gets very difficult, if not impossible.
Obama gets Colorado and Virginia. These account for 22 votes, essentially the same as Ohio and Florida.
McCain gets Michigan or Pennsylvania. If so, that means Ohio, and probably Wisconsin go his way as well, as they are more conservative.
McCain retains the Western States: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. If so, Obama's only hopes would be to steal Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, and hope he holds everything else in place.
At this point, I'd call it 55-45 Obama as to who wins. With so many variables left- fallout of crisis, McCain postponing his campaign, the debates, potential gaffes, etc... In all honesty, if Obama doesn't win, that would be the ultimate embarrassment for Democrats. Republicans have several nooses around them: An unpopular, albeit successful war going on, sour economy, 2 straight terms with one party in the White House, and so on.
I'll make further predictions as events plays out, and continue to update my poll predictions.
Friday, September 19, 2008
State Polls
Interesting Polls over the past week:
New York: Sienna Poll has Obama 46-41. I don't believe it's this close. Obama will still win by double digits, just maybe not by 20 points like you'd expect. Nonetheless, it's interesting seeing a NY poll anywhere near sniffing distance.
New Jersey: Two polls have 48-45 last week. To an extent, the same thing as New York. Obama would have to do something very bad in order to lose New Jersey. Or McCain will have to over produce expectations. I still see Obama by 7-9 points here. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it became a little tighter the way Bush was able to do in the waning weeks of 00 and 04 by getting within 2-3 points before tailing off.
Minnesota: Rasmussen has it 45-45. A couple others have 47-45 Obama. Obama is still the odds on favorite here. Bush came very close twice, but still lost by 1-3 points. I'd expect the same, even if McCain were to pull ahead. The tide is in the Democrats side this year, especially in a state where Republicans always are competitive, but never seem to cross the finish line.
Wisconsin: Several polls have it within a point or two, some have it dead even. Either way, if Obama loses this state, he's in trouble. With that being said, I expect Obama to eke out a victory here.
Ohio: Polls are all over the place here. A few polls have Obama ahead, but the majority have McCain still ahead. I'd be very surprised if McCain lost here. If he does, Obama wins the election.
Pennsylvania: Most polls are within the margin of error, but I believe Obama still has the edge. Once again, if McCain wins, or pulls resources away from Obama's team, that might be good enough here.
Michigan: Obama is still showing a 2-4 point lead in most polls. I'm a little surprised McCain isn't dead even here. I believe the election may hinge on this state. If McCain pulls it out, it may not matter if Obama flips states such as Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.
Iowa: Most polls have Obama leading outside the margin. Once again, I'd be SHOCKED if McCain came close here, despite Bush winning four years ago.
Colorado: Still a toss-up, with polls being all over the place. I'd still say McCain wins, but it'll be close.
Virginia: McCain still is a little ahead. And once again, I'd be surprised if McCain were to lose, despite the growing Northern Washington suburbs favoring the Democrats.
Nevada: McCain leads most of the polls, but within the margin of error. Obama has a chance, but McCain wins here.
New Mexico: Just like Nevada, but the reverse. Obama should win here.
Florida: McCain will win. Period. Even if we see Obama take a lead, I still don't believe he has a chance here.
New York: Sienna Poll has Obama 46-41. I don't believe it's this close. Obama will still win by double digits, just maybe not by 20 points like you'd expect. Nonetheless, it's interesting seeing a NY poll anywhere near sniffing distance.
New Jersey: Two polls have 48-45 last week. To an extent, the same thing as New York. Obama would have to do something very bad in order to lose New Jersey. Or McCain will have to over produce expectations. I still see Obama by 7-9 points here. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it became a little tighter the way Bush was able to do in the waning weeks of 00 and 04 by getting within 2-3 points before tailing off.
Minnesota: Rasmussen has it 45-45. A couple others have 47-45 Obama. Obama is still the odds on favorite here. Bush came very close twice, but still lost by 1-3 points. I'd expect the same, even if McCain were to pull ahead. The tide is in the Democrats side this year, especially in a state where Republicans always are competitive, but never seem to cross the finish line.
Wisconsin: Several polls have it within a point or two, some have it dead even. Either way, if Obama loses this state, he's in trouble. With that being said, I expect Obama to eke out a victory here.
Ohio: Polls are all over the place here. A few polls have Obama ahead, but the majority have McCain still ahead. I'd be very surprised if McCain lost here. If he does, Obama wins the election.
Pennsylvania: Most polls are within the margin of error, but I believe Obama still has the edge. Once again, if McCain wins, or pulls resources away from Obama's team, that might be good enough here.
Michigan: Obama is still showing a 2-4 point lead in most polls. I'm a little surprised McCain isn't dead even here. I believe the election may hinge on this state. If McCain pulls it out, it may not matter if Obama flips states such as Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.
Iowa: Most polls have Obama leading outside the margin. Once again, I'd be SHOCKED if McCain came close here, despite Bush winning four years ago.
Colorado: Still a toss-up, with polls being all over the place. I'd still say McCain wins, but it'll be close.
Virginia: McCain still is a little ahead. And once again, I'd be surprised if McCain were to lose, despite the growing Northern Washington suburbs favoring the Democrats.
Nevada: McCain leads most of the polls, but within the margin of error. Obama has a chance, but McCain wins here.
New Mexico: Just like Nevada, but the reverse. Obama should win here.
Florida: McCain will win. Period. Even if we see Obama take a lead, I still don't believe he has a chance here.
Updated polls from this week..
Mr. Barack Hussein Obama has seen a positive shift in momentum since his bad last 3 weeks in the polls nationally. In most polls, Obama has an insignificant lead within the margin of error. Most of them hover around 47-45 for Obama. There's a couple of them out that has McCain still up. But for the most part, McCain's convention bounce has subsided.
A few things that can/will dramatically shift the race in the next six weeks:
A few things that can/will dramatically shift the race in the next six weeks:
- The presidential debates. In 2000, Bush overperformed expectations and went from being down 4-6 points, to being dead even. Gore looked like the class bully, the know it all.
- The VP debates. 3 things could happen- Palin could look overmatched on foreign policy; Biden could look old and tired; or they have equally good and bad moments.
- Big economic news; This past week, Obama has gained because of Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie, AIG, Merril Lynch, showing weaknesses. In other words, no matter whose fault it is, it will look bad for Republicans.
- Foreign Policy news; Can look good or bad for each party: The Russia/Georgia conflict hurt Obama, as he looked weak-kneed. And Americans were reminded that Obama has a United Nations mentality- give the bad guy every benefit of the doubt.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
More on recent polling
Now that we are almost a week out from the conventions, the polls hasn't really started to clear up yet. The reason? Sarah Palin. She has totally flipped this race on its head. A few interesting points now that she is on the ticket:
- Before she was nominated as VP, McCain was drawing an average of 1,000 at rally's. Over the past 5 days, they drew 5,000 once, and as much as 13,000. They say they are averaging about 10,000. That's Obama-Biden territory.
- We tried getting tickets for Saturday's rally in Colorado Springs, but they were sold out. That's the event that had 13,000.
- As long as the media is still perceived by the majority of the public as crude and rude to Palin, it'll drive the GOP numbers further up. Remember when Clinton rallied after the media was taking it to her? Same thing.
- Palin has not only SAVED the Republican base and got them energized for the first time, but she has the appeal to draw independents and conservative Democrats to the GOP.
- Over all polls taken, McCain for the first time has a higher average than Obama. Many say McCain's not leading yet because of the GOP brand, but it's probably a toss-up at this point.
- Among independents, McCain has opened up a 15 point lead according to Gallup 52-37.
- ABC News/Washington Post poll: McCain ahead by two.
- CNN poll: Tie
- CBS News: McCain up two.
- Gallup: McCain up four
- Gallup (Likely Voters): McCain up 10. (possible outlier, this poll has always been high for McCain compared to others).
- Gender Gap: Women- McCain 46. Men- McCain 52. Bad numbers for Obama. Obama needs to win the women vote by 8-10. He currently leads women by 2-4. That won't get it done. Reason being? Men vote GOP in much larger numbers.
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