Recent Polls Update

Here are a few nuggets I'm finding interesting, as we are about 9 months from the 2010 midterms:

• In about every poll now, GOP leads the generic ballot over Dems. This is remarkable because even in solid GOP years, Dems usually outpoll the GOP on the generic ballot. This poll is confirmed by Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, CNN/Opinion Dynamics.
• According to Rasmussen Reports, Obama still has an upside down approval of 46/49. More telling, the intensity against him is a -15. This means there are far more people who have a strong dislike of him/his policies, over people who favor him/his policies strongly.

Here are some Senate races, along with my prediction and odds, albeit 9 months out:

• Colorado Democrat Senate seat: Republican Jane Norton is way out in front of incumbent Democrat Michael Bennett, 51-37. With Bennett's favorables well below 50%, this poll is not surprising. The chances of this seat going back to the GOP seems very likely. Likely GOP Takeover. (70%)
  
• Delaware Open Senate seat (D) Biden's old seat): In Joe Biden's former seat, GOP candidate Mike Castle is the strong favorite over Democrat Chris Coons. Even in a heavily blue state, Castle is well liked.. and should take this former Democrat seat. Solid GOP Takeover.(80%)
  
• North Dakota open Senate seat ((D) Dorgan retiring): In Byron Dorgan's retiring seat, the GOP is 100% certain (minus a scandal) to pick this seat up from the Dems. In reality, GOP Governor John Hoeven would have beaten Dorgan anyway, had Dorgan not decided to retire. Now, the GOP doesn't have to use any money on this race. Solid GOP Takeover. (100%)
  
• Arkansas Democrat Senate seat: Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) is in the political fight of her life. In fact, several recent polls have her down anywhere from 6-23 points (depending on the poll and her opponent). Either way, it looks like she is going down to the GOP this year. Likely GOP takeover (85%).
• Nevada Democrat Senate seat: Incumbent Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, like Lincoln above, is in the political fight of his career. The vast majority of Nevadan's disapprove of him, and his performance. In matchups against the two likely GOP competitors, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian are ahead in poll after poll, between 6-9 points. Reid cannot be counted out because of his money advantage. Likely GOP takeover (60%).
• Pennsylvania Democrat Senate seat: Arlen Specter (D), is in a primary fight that he figures to win. If so, he'll be taking on (R) Pat Toomey. Toomey challenged Specter in 04, when Specter was still a Republican. In most recent polls, Toomey leads Specter in low double digits. In one recent poll, Toomey leads by 14 points. Since this is still a Democrat-leaning state, Specter still has a chance. Even so, Toomey is a strong candidate and the GOP tide is sweeping in. Likely GOP takeover (50-55%).
• Illinois Democrat Senate seat ((D) Obama's old seat): In a state where corruption rules the roost, this will be an interesting race. In Obama's former seat, his pal, (D) Alexi Giannoulius is running close with (R) Mark Kirk. In the Democrat-leaning state, this one is too close to call. Giannoulius is dogged by corruption charges in his former position at his family bank, so not sure how to read this one. I'd say 50-50. Even Race (50%).
• Ohio open Senate seat ((R) George Voinovich retiring): This retiring GOP seat is likely to stay in the GOP column. Rob Portman (R) is the slight favorite to retain this seat in GOP hands. Likely GOP retention (60%).
• Florida open Senate seat ((R) Mel Martinez retiring): The likely GOP candidate, Marco Rubio, should handily beat Democrat Kendrick Meek. Rubio, a conservative, is likely to beat current GOP Governor Charlie Crist in the primary. Likely GOP retention (75%).
• Missouri open Senate seat ((R) Kit Bond retiring): Republican Roy Blount and Democrat Robin Carnahan are running about even for this open GOP seat. With the likely GOP wave, Blount might be the slight favorite. Slight GOP Retention. (50-55%)
• Kentucky open Senate seat ((R) Jim Bunning retiring): In this strong GOP State, this open contest should go to GOP'ers Trey Grayson or Rand Paul. Strong GOP (90%).
• New Hampshire open Senate seat ((R) Judd Gregg retiring): (R) Kelly Ahoutte is the slight favorite over (D) Paul Hodes. Slight GOP retention (60%).

By details above, all of the GOP held seats that are close, are likely to stay in GOP hands. On the other hand, all of the close Democrat held seats, are 50/50 at worst for GOP takeovers. The following are slight Democrat retentions. If the GOP takes any of the following seats, it could be a GOP landslide in the Senate:

• Indiana Democrat Senate seat: Democrat Evan Bayh, who is a moderate, will have to fight hard for his seat. Former Senator Dan Coats (R), will give him a challenge. With this contest in a GOP state and Coats being a strong candidate, this could become close. Bayh isn't hugely unpopular like many Democrats above, so not sure how to read this yet. I'd say slight Democrat retention. Slight Dem retention (50-55%).
• New York Democrat Senate seat: (D) Kirsten Gillebrand, not hugely popular, is the favorite to keep her senate seat. If GOP'ers Rudy Guiliani or George Pataki decide to run, the GOP would be the slight favorite. Otherwise it would be a long shot for the GOP. It looks as if Rudy is a no-go at this time. Pataki entering the ring may be the GOP's only hope at this seat. Likely Dem retention (70%, depending on Pataki).
• Washington Democrat Senate seat: (D) Patty Murray is the favorite no matter who the GOP recruits. However, her approval's are below 50%. The best chance the GOP has is if former GOP Gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi puts his hat into the ring. Rossi, who lost a very controversial election in 04 (he led the original count and the first few recounts. Recounting stopped once the Democrat took her first lead.) If Rossi commits, along with the likely GOP wave, there's a slight chance. Likely Dem retention (75%).
• California Democrat Senate seat: (D) Barbara Boxer, although unpopular, is in a heavy blue state, and has a sizable campaign warchest. She is the likely favorite. GOP'ers Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell have a slight chance. Although turnout in places like Los Angeles and San Francisco would have to be quite low. Likely Dem retention (90%).

NOTE: The seats I did not list for 2010 are safe seats at this time for both the GOP and Dems.

Conclusion: The GOP is likely to take between 5-7 Senate seats. This could change as the political climate changes. If the GOP takes these seats, the Democrats majority would be down to 54-46 to 52-48. As of now, it's 59-41. Here are the percentages I'd put them as of February 5th, 2010:

• 50%---- 52/54 Dem Majority. This would make it 46-48 GOP seats.
  
• 25% ----54/46 Dem Majority. This would make it 44-46 GOP seats.
• 15%---- 50/52 Dem Majority. This would make it 48-50 GOP seats. (If it's 50-50, The Dem VP would be decider).
• 10%---- Anything else- Either a 51+ Majority for GOP, or Dems only losing 4 or less Senate seats.

One more thing to consider- The possible flip of Independent Joe Lieberman, who caucuses with the Democrats. He said there's a slight possibility he may switch to the GOP in the next year. And to think, he was almost our VP, as a Democrat!!
More to come on House and Gubernatorial races soon....