Bush era tax cuts

Nothing annoys me more than when Democrats keep repeating the "Republicans are for the rich" line. Do they not realize the taxation on those making over 200K results in over 750,000 small businesses in the United States? So in a economic decline, the question remains why they would want to raise the taxes on these individuals. Do they not think the uncertainty of what their tax rates would be might scare these small business owners into keeping a tight grip on extra cash, instead of hiring and expanding?

There are now 47 House Democrats who want the Bush era tax cuts for ALL incomes to be continued. In addition, such Democrat Senators as Kent Conrad, Joe Lieberman, and Ben Nelson also agree these need to be kept. Nonetheless, the Obama White House will still spill out the failed and pathetic line of blaming the GOP.

Front-runners for GOP Presidential nomination

I know we're still an eternity in politics away from knowing who will come out of the GOP field, but here's some of my early ten favorites in order:

• Mitch Daniels
• Paul Ryan
  
• Mitt Romney
• John Thune
• Haley Barbour
• Sarah Palin
  
• Newt Gingrich
• Mike Pence
• Mike Huckabee
• Chris Christie

Mixed bag of polls for GOP

A new Pew Research poll has the GOP out in front of the Dems by a 49-33 margin among independents. And with the voter intensity so much stronger for the GOP, my prediction of a Democrat bloodbath remains.

Here's a few new poll nuggets I've seen today:

• Wisconsin- Republican Ron Johnson continues his solid ~8 lead over Russ Feingold. Looking like a solid pickup for the GOP, whereas last week it was a toss-up.
• California- Boxer appears to be keeping (and increasing) her lead over GOP'er Carly Fiorina. The lead is around 6 or so. Nonetheless, the voter intensity will be big, even in CA. Not over yet.
• New York- In a shocker, the GOP challenger is 1 point behind Democrat Kirsten Gillebrand. Like CA, New York has more Dem voters, but the GOP has a chance.
• Washington- Democrat Patty Murray has sustained her lead from last week. Unless Republican Dino Rossi turns things around in a hurry, this may get away from the GOP.
• 
  

Direction of the GOP leadership

The future of the GOP is heading in a new direction. The "old" GOP, headed by the spending rank and file, is headed out. And coming is the new GOP blood. You know, the ones that really stand for what people think in association with the Republican Party-- Strong Defense, low taxes, and most importantly, less government involvement. Here's the list in no particular order, along with their biggest attribute at this time-

• Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan- Roadmap for America author. All things budgetary, Ryan is the best point man, and is extremely articulate.
• Indiana Congressman Mike Pence- Strong conservative voice in House that resonates with grassroots.
• New Jersey Governor Chris Christie- Popular governor in a blue state, and is taking on special interests with no apologies and cutting the deficit without raising taxes in the Garden State.
• Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell- Strong social conservative succeeding in a "purple state" with conservative principles.
• Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown- Taking a senate seat in Massachusetts will make him a star in GOP circles, especially when he was the voice that promised to try to undo Obamacare.
• Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels- He's about as popular of governor as their is in the nation. Proves strong economic conservative values can make a state succeed, going from in the red to in the black; and has strong support in both parties.
• Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio- Cuban American has huge upside inside the party and has a future platform in the GOP's leadership, possibly 2016?
• North Dakota Senator John Thune- Part of current GOP senate, but has perfect conservative credentials on things we hold dear. Added cherry on top- Knocked off former Democrat senate leader Tom Daschle.

New Senate polls look promising

On the heels of my mid-September predictions, here's a few inviting polls in close races held by Democrats.

West Virginia- John Raese has now pulled ahead of Democrat Joe Manchin. This would be a huge pickup, being that it wasn't on the radar only 2 weeks ago. As my previous blog stated, West Virginia cannot stand Obama, so this poll isn't surprising despite Mancin's popularity.

Wisconsin- Republican Ron Johnson appears to be opening up a lead over incumbent Russ Feingold. The last two polls have him up 7 and 11 points, respectively.

Nevada- Sharron Angle leads by a point in each of the last two polls over Harry Reid.

California- Democrat Barbara Boxer's 8 point lead of last week is now down to 1 point.

Summation: If these four contests go GOP, there very well could be a GOP Senate majority, in addition to a new GOP House majority. Add these four to GOP pickups in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Colorado. Then add on the possibilities of Connecticut, Washington, Delaware, and New York. WOW!!!

Dems run against Obamacare

At current count, ZERO Democrats have run or advertised this election season on their support of Obamacare. This is nothing short of stunning. In the book I wrote, it basically rattles off all the reasons why our country wouldn't "come around" to this monstrosity despite the Obama Administration saying it would.

As for Democrats who have advertised AGAINST Obamacare, there have been no less than 34 running away from it. Once again, this number is absolutely amazing. For it being the signature bill in a Presidency, it's nothing to be too proud of. In addition, fully 61 percent not only don't like Obamacare, but want it repealed. It's now up to the GOP to get this sucker repealed and replaced. This however will be tricky because Obama would veto anything a new GOP majority in congress wants. Instead, the best plan may be to defund Obamacare. Assuming the GOP retakes the House, if there's no money for the program, it'll basically be neutered.

GOP Poor Sports

In any game, there is a winner and a loser. In politics, the same goes. However, those who feel like they have more power than they really do, clearly do not understand this simple philosophy. This is especially true in the GOP Primaries this year. The fact is, when you represent a political party, you are asking the voters to pick the best candidate to face the other party. When one loses, they should listen to the "will of the people". Let's take a look at a few mainstream Republican candidates who despite losing their primary battle, cannot accept losing. Once again, this points to the power grab these people have. Once one has been exposed to D.C. for so long, they may not know any better until the public reminds them it's OUR country, not these lifer politicians.

• Delaware- The upstart conservative Christine O'Donnell beat the party favorite, Mike Castle. It's true that Castle had a better chance of winning the general election. Nonetheless, Castle still takes his toys and goes home. Instead of endorsing the party candidate, he says the wackos of the GOP helped get O'Donnell elected. Sound like a poor loser to you?
  Alaska- Lisa Murkowski was beaten by the impressive Tea Party candidate Joe Miller. Murkowski has decided that she needs more power grabbing of Washington in her future. So she's decided to be a write-in candidate. She will surely lose. She's lucky this is a GOP state, or else she would have essentially split the GOP vote and give the senate seat to a Democrat. Very productive! And to make matters worse, she spits on the voters by saying Miller is "extreme". So apparently the voters don't know better. But when you look at the resumes, Miller's dwarfs sweet ole Lisa's! He's a magistrate judge, graduated from West Point, served two wars, etc.
• Florida- Getting trounced in polling for the GOP primary, slicki-minded Charlie Crist decided to abandon the GOP to become an Independent. And for a while, things were working. He was leading in the polls. But now the true is coming out on this man with no integrity. Marco Rubio is destroying both Crist and the Democrat. The sad part is Crist promised to not leave the GOP once Rubio caught fire. Lie #1. And secondly, he pretty much killed his own political future. He left the GOP, the Dems don't want him. If he would have just taken the beating like a good soldier, he could have challenged the very beatable Democrat Nelson in the next senate election in '12. Oh well, we hopefully will never hear or see from this phony again!
  

Telltales of GOP landslide

Since most in the country know that there will be a GOP tsunami on November 2nd, let's take a look at some races that give supporting evidence to this theory:

• CA Senate- Republican Carly Fiorina within striking distance (around 3-5 pts) against three term incumbent Barbara Boxer in a liberal state.
• WA Senate- Republican Dino Rossi. He's still the underdog, but if he has a chance this year (polls are saying he's still in it, although losing some ground), things will look good for the GOP.
• Penn Senate- In this open seat, Republican Pat Toomey is beating Democrat Joe Sestak fairly easily (around 9-12 pts). This with a state that has over a million more registered Democrats in the state.
• Penn Governor- Republican Tom Corbett is beating his Democrat challenger pretty handily (10-14 pt range).
• Ohio Governor- Personal favorite Jon Kasich is winning big.
• Ohio Senate- Republican Rob Portman has this one in the bag.
• Wisconsin Senate- Republican challenger Ron Johnson has a real shot of knocking off liberal incumbent Russ Feingold. The latest polls show political novice Johnson with a slight lead.
• Wisconsin Governor- The GOP challenger is winning big as of last count.
  

In the past few election cycles, the GOP's strategy was to dominate the South, compete in the Rust Belt States and Southwest, and survive in the Northeast and West Coast. If you look at this election cycle, things are changing to come extent in these regions.

• Republicans are dominating the Rust Belt States. As mentioned above in Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races. Also, the GOP is primed to take a few congressional seats from the Dems. Also, Ohio and Wisconsin are also looking good for the GOP in the Gubernatorial, Senate, and congressional races.
• Republicans are competing in West Coast races. See CA Governor and Senate races; Washington Senate race; Oregon Governor race.
• Purple State Colorado is turning against Obama. Senate race leans Republican, as well as 3 currently held Democrat congressional districts. This includes my district, where Democrat Betsy Markey is on her political deathbed! Also, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada is still in the fight of his political life. Despite the union support and a ton of money, he still could very well go down in November!
  
• Northeast- Although this still isn't fertile ground for the GOP, there's some positive showings. The GOP will potentially pick up a few Democrat congressional seats in New York. They already won the senate seat in Massachusetts (Scott Brown); have a strong challenge in Connecticut for Senate; the GOP Senate candidate leads in New Hampshire; the GOP candidate in Delaware trails by only 10 (this is good for Delaware).

All this evidence points to more than 39 House districts being turned to the GOP. This would mean they would take control of the House! Away, satan.... I mean Nancy Pelosi. I'm guessing the GOP will pick up between 43-48 House Seats. This number could swell to 60, but I don't want to count my chickens before they've hatched.

As for the Senate, I still don't see the GOP retaking the majority. They need to take 10 seats back. This would really require an inside straight, basically running the table. Although the chances may be slim, in tide elections, all of the close calls go for the party with momentum (see '94 for GOP and '06 for Dems).

Here's my guesses on the 10 contested senate seats that currently belong to Dems, plus a few more wildcards. First four are no brainers (ND, Ind, Ark, Penn); next three are teneous (CO, Ill, Wisc); Nevada is the crown jewel; next two I'm not sure will happen (CA, WA); next two aren't on radars (WV, Conn), but should they be?; last one is the biggest wildcard (Lieberman and Nelson seats)~

• North Dakota. Slam dunk for GOP. Popular Governor John Hoeven leads by about 40 pts. Even if Democrat Byron Dorgan doesn't retire, Hoeven still wins. +1
• Indiana. Another easy win for GOP'er Dan Coats. He's up by at least 15 pts. +2
• Arkansas. Republican John Boozman leads Democrat Blanche Lincoln by as many as 35 pts, average being 20 pts. Another easy pickup. +3
• Pennsylvania. Although I wouldn't bet my life on it, GOP candidate Pat Toomey should win here. He's the better candidate and the polls support this claim. +4
  
• Colorado. In all recent polls, Republican Ken Buck leads incumbent Michael Bennet. Although anything can happen, this is Buck's race to lose. +5
• Illinois. In this Democrat state, corruption rules. When corruption rules, political bodies get turned over. With weak candidate Giannoulius, this Democrat is in serious trouble. I give a little pause because this is still a Democrat leaning state. Still, with the tide rolling, I see GOP'er Mark Kirk winning. Not totally confident though +6
• Wisconsin. As explained above, Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold. I believe that Feingold is just simply too liberal for this toss-up state (unless you're in Madison). Close, but Johnson wins if I had to put money on it. +7
• Nevada. Still not sure Republican Sharron Angle can pull this out with Reid's get out the vote and union support, plus a ton of money. Nonetheless, he's so despised in this state that his son doesn't put his own last name on advertising. Now there's a vote of confidence for you dad! I'd say toss-up, to lean Angle. +8 (maybe)
  
• California. Fiorina is a good candidate, but in a liberal state, Boxer still has the edge. But if this is really a "wave" election, we may see the GOP going to the polls at such a rate that it may overwhelm the built in Democrat advantage. Still an uphill climb. Lean Democrat retention. +0.
• Washington. Rossi is also a good candidate, but is starting to lose momentum to incumbent Patty Murray. Rossi needs to hold his own in King County (Seattle area) to have a chance. +0.
• West Virginia. Despite the popular Democrat Governor Joe Manchin entering the senate race, he's now only leading by 5 pts. Reason being? This state cannot stand Obama or his elite liberalism. And with Manchin probably rubber stamping Obama's agenda, there's a chance the state may turn from a candidate they like. Although Manchin is still the favorite, I can almost see this state flipping to the GOP before CA or WA does.
• Connecticut. This race is the Democrat Attorney General Dick Blumenthal's to win, despite his lying about serving in Vietnam and getting caught. WWE Founder Linda McMahon (although an unconventional candidate) has a punchers chance. In a highly liberal state, the tide must really pour in if she ends up winning. If she does win, she'll likely be the 11th or 12th GOP pickup, as it'll be a continuation of a dominant GOP night.
• Joe Lieberman. If the GOP is one vote short, he may change his alliances and caucus with the GOP. If he's guaranteed the Chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee, there's a slight chance he'd do it. Remember, he backed John McCain in '08!
• Ben Nelson. He's the now unpopular senator from Nebraska. After his Obamacare vote, he was about the most unpopular person in this heavily conservative state. So to save his own hyde, he me switch to the GOP in anticipation of a tough '12 senate contest.

And there you have it. Once again, I'm much more confident in the House flipping to the GOP, than the senate. But, with all of these scenarios, I'd say there's a 25 percent chance of it happening. Time will tell. As long as Obama remains nuclear active, the GOP is going to give the Democrats a bloodbath on November 2nd!

William Buckley's electable philosophy

William Buckley, the founder of modern conservatism, had a very powerful idea when it comes to Republican Primaries. He said that it's important to nominate the most conservative Republican who is electable. This is a great thought to ponder. Is party purity the most important? Is it good to be pragmatic some of the time? If so, would it be wise to nominate a candidate who is most electable in a state?

These questions come on the heels of conservative and Tea Party darling Christine O'Donnell beating the established moderate Republican Mike Castle in Delaware. In the early going, it was all but going to be a Castle coronation. And with Castle being a popular "moderate" Republican in the House of Representatives for so many terms, most election analysts had him cruising to an easy victory over Democrat Chris Coons. Now that O'Donnell has won, these analysts say that Coons is on his way to an easy victory. Yet there is such a strong case for the anti-establishment candidate. But will this work in a very liberal state, such as Delaware? Does O'Donnell have enough Tea Party and anti-establishment support for a conservative to win in a seat held by longtime liberal Joe Biden?

If you look at several examples of an upstart candidate this election cycle, it may offer a few tips:

• Republican Scott Brown from Massachusetts had a groundswell of support late in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy's seat. Brown campaigned on bringing power back to the people; and to oppose Obamacare. He succeeded, and won in a very liberal state. In fact, some analysts say is the most liberal state in the nation. He has supported a few of Obama's initiatives, but still has support from the Republican establishment.
• Republican nominee Joe Miller from Alaska- Miller upset incumbent Lisa Murkowsi in the primary a few weeks ago. Miller had the anti-establishment, Tea Party support. But Miller brings bonafides to the table- judge, West Point grad, veteran.
• Republican Sharron Angle from Nevada- Most analysts think she was the weakest of the GOP primary candidates. However, she received the support of the Tea Party and virtually cruised to victory in the Primary. She is running neck and neck with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. In this case, it' s a50/50 proposition. On one hand, you can say that Reid is so unpopular that Adolph Hitler would have a chance against him. On the other hand, could Sue Lowden have cruised to victory had she beaten Angle in the primary? Who knows. The fact is, Angle's supporters are probably a lot more fired up to go vote for her than are Reid's. In addition, there will be many in Nevada who will just vote against Reid no matter the opponent because of him sheparding such unpopular policies through the Senate-- Obamacare, Stimulus, Auto bailouts, etc.
• Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky. He was the outsider who really had an easy victory. He's a lot in the mold of his father, Ron Paul. However, this should not affect Paul in any way. He's running for a Senate seat in a very anti-Obama state of Kentucky. Paul will win easily.
• Marco Rubio of Florida- When Rubio stepped in to challenge popular Governor Charlie Crist, most GOP'ers put their weight behind Crist, the establishment pick. However, as the clarifications in policy positions have come out, Rubio was blowing Crist out of the water in GOP polling. Because of this, Crist left the GOP (after promising not to do so) and is running as an Independent. One year ago, nobody gave Rubio any shot. Today, many are saying not only is he a lock to be Florida's junior Senator, but that he is a rising star in the Republican party.

From these examples, I can definitely see both arguments. One should vote for where their policy positions are. And the fact is, all conservatives would take O'Donnell's over Castle's any day of the week. However, does this mean that the GOP will now lose this state that was once thought an absolute lock? Only time will tell. Most are hoping for a Rubio-like turnaround. But the deck is stacked against O'Donnell being that she isn't running in Florida.

Equating Quran burning to Mosque opposition??

The liberal establishment media is at it again. It is well known that they cook up some doozies on their philosophical opposites (read- conservatives, Christians, Patriots, etc.). However, this one really stretches ones imagination. They are coming up with a theory in which they are putting the following two issues on equal ground-- the opposition to the Mosque being built by Ground Zero with the Pastor of a Christian church wanting to burn Quran's on September 11th.

However, this flies in the face of reality based on the following points:

• Not one conservative or Christian in media has backed the burning of the Quran.
  
• All asked about it have condemned it (Palin, Hannity, National Review, etc.)
• If we wanted to play a game, we could call out a liberal double standard.... or hyprocrisy. Wasn't it their First Amendment right to want to build a Mosque at Ground Zero no matter how nuts the idea is? Same thing for the Quran burning- No matter how outrageous this is, why doesn't the liberal media come out and support the churches 1st Amendment right?