Quotes from Obama camp

The following are quotes I've rounded up that would make them blush with embarrassment.....

"America in 2008 is a downright mean country!" - Michelle Obama

"If they need me, they can call me." -Barack Obama's answer to the financial crisis as he continues to prepare for his debate, while McCain goes back to DC.

"The Obama has a friendly relationship to Mr. Ayers." -Obama Sr. Advisor David Axelrod on unrepented terrorist William Ayers.

"I don't want my daughters to be punished with their mistake." -Barack Obama regarding getting pregnant at Planned Parenthood event.

"For the first time in my life, I'm proud of my country." -Michelle Obama

"I would meet with any world leader, without pre-conditions." -Barack Obama

"John McCain has no honor." -Obama spokesman Bill Burton

"That is above my pay grade." -Barack Obama's answer to when life begins.

"I belong to a normal, Christian church." -Barack Obama defending Jeremiah Wright's church.

Obama in clear lead with 40 days to go

Obama is in the clear lead now nationally, and is looking stronger in a few important states. This has to do completely with the economic crisis. And despite whose fault it is (I believe all parties involved are at fault), the party in power at the top will get blamed. And to some regard, rightfully so. But of course the Democrat controlled congress has a whopping 17% approval rating this week, so they shouldn't be let off the hook either.

A few updated polls:

Wash Post/ABC Poll: Obama leads 52-43. This is the biggest lead for either side to date. Yet this is a heavily skewered poll. It's 38 Dems to 28% Republicans polled. Because of this, and matching to other polls, this seems to be an outlier.

Rasmussen: Obama leads 49-47. I'd say this is spot on. Like I've stated before, Rasmussen is clearly the most accurate of all polls. I'd believe anywhere between a 1-4 Obama lead.

Gallup: Obama leads 47-44. Pretty accurate.

A few new state polls and/or my prognosis as of now in order of interest and importance....

Colorado: Obama leads in about every recent poll now. Some have him up here as much as 7 points. That's inaccurate. However, Rasmussen has it a 2 point lead, which seems reasonable. It's still going to be a barn burner here. I'm a little less convinced of a McCain victory than I was 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's still 50-50 at this point, as there are still 72,000 more registered Republicans in the state. Will come down to independents, which is slightly less than Republicans, and slightly more than Democrats.

New Hampshire: McCain gets his first lead here, 49-47. This is great news for McCain. Like I've stated repeatedly, this is the one New England State that can go to McCain. He has a good chance. The independents love McCain, and now the base is shored up with Palin.

Florida: Rasmussen has McCain still up 51-46 here. Although a few polls have it tighter. Once again, McCain will win here I believe. A new Hispanic poll in FL says McCain is up 51-41. If that's right, game over. Obama has to dominate all minorities in this state to have a chance. Although Cubans cannot stand the socialist minded Democrats, which fits right into Obama's stances on the government. Reminds them too much of the hated Castro.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads within the margin of error. If Obama doesn't win here, I say game, set, match for McCain. This state to me is more interesting than the others because Clinton trounced Obama here, and it's been reported that many conservative Democrats are scared to death of Obama. But when you vote Democrat your whole life, do you change at this point? Philly and Pittsburgh will vote heavily for Obama, especially with expected high black turnout. But the rest of the state is for McCain to take. Obama has the edge, but wouldn't be surprised if McCain pulled the shocker.

Michigan: The second most interesting state to me. I'm SHOCKED Obama leads by 4-5 points here. As I explained in a previous entry, with Obama's ties to a convicted mayor of Detroit, a very unpopular Governor, and many social conservative Democrats (home of Reagan Democrats), I'd expect McCain to do better here at this point. If Romney were McCain's choice, it may have made a difference, being that Romney has deep roots here. Obama has the edge, especially with blacks in Detroit, and union workers who are reliant on government intervention and help. However, the Detroit suburbs could not stand the indicted Kilpatrick, so will he help bring Obama down? Probably not.

Wisconsin: Hair whisker close the past two elections. Obama is up by a couple points. I see him winning by roughly .05-2 points here. A lot of pasty white liberals, plus a university town so liberal and whacky, they rival Berkeley and Boulder. Note: That is not a compliment to be compared to those places.

Ohio: Still McCain's to lose. He's up a few points still. If Obama wins here, he will win the election easily.

New Mexico: Within the margin of error, but consistently with Obama ahead. With many Hispanics dependent on the government, a socialist type politician, read Obama, should get them in droves. It's Obama's to lose here.

Nevada: Similar to NM, more registered Dems here, but McCain still has the edge. Living in a neighboring state also helps here.

Virginia: Very close, with McCain hanging on by a thread. McCain has to win here. If not, he has to steal a Michigan or Pennsylvania. Northern Virginia trending Dems, but the southerners are still strong GOP country. I still say McCain wins, with help from the heavy backing of vets.

Missouri: McCain has been ahead in every poll I've seen, usually around 5 points at least. He should win here, roughly by 4-6 points in my opinion. It's been said over and over that the GOP doesn't win the Presidency without the Show Me State.

North Carolina: McCain still leads by around 3-6 points in most polls. It's McCain's to lose. However, Obama will draw huge black support and university support.

Minnesota: Per usual, the race is neck and neck, ala 00 and 04. Yet the Dems seem to win here by a couple points. Being how far off liberal and deranged the Minneapolis area is, I'm shocked Republicans can even come this close.

Oregon: Most polls say Obama is up 4-7 points. He should win here easily. I'd say anywhere between 5-10 points.

New Jersey: Per usual, there will be a few polls that show it close. It won't be a blowout, as many Democrats here are socially liberal, but also want our country protected (they will vote Obama and pray that he shows strength).

Indiana: Polls show McCain up 5-8 points. Obama is spending heavily in his neighboring state to try to close in. Tall order, not happening unless it's a blowout.

Easy street for McCain, to varying degrees: Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alaska, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Wyoming

Easy street for Obama, to varying degrees: California, Washington, Illinois, New York, Mass, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, DC


All in all, at this point, I'd say Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Virginia will be the bellweather for this election. Whomever can grab three of these five will most likely win, if this election remains close. But like I state above, if Pennsylvania or Michigan turn red, or Ohio or Florida turn blue, those WILL be game changers.

Speaking of close, it won't be close if.....

Obama gets Ohio. That means Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania are safe for Obama because Ohio is more conservative than the others.
Obama gets Florida. Unlikely, but if he pulls it out, McCain's math to 270 gets very difficult, if not impossible.
Obama gets Colorado and Virginia. These account for 22 votes, essentially the same as Ohio and Florida.

McCain gets Michigan or Pennsylvania. If so, that means Ohio, and probably Wisconsin go his way as well, as they are more conservative.
McCain retains the Western States: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. If so, Obama's only hopes would be to steal Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, and hope he holds everything else in place.

At this point, I'd call it 55-45 Obama as to who wins. With so many variables left- fallout of crisis, McCain postponing his campaign, the debates, potential gaffes, etc... In all honesty, if Obama doesn't win, that would be the ultimate embarrassment for Democrats. Republicans have several nooses around them: An unpopular, albeit successful war going on, sour economy, 2 straight terms with one party in the White House, and so on.

I'll make further predictions as events plays out, and continue to update my poll predictions.

Blame game Phil Gramm

For those who want to blame Phill Gramm for the de-regulatory on the current economic struggle:

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/schumers-straddle/86393/

Obama used Gramm on the stump yesterday in Wisconsin. Will he say that Schumer and Robert Rubin were full throated supporters of this bill? Doubt it. Will he say that Clinton signed it enthusiastically? Doubt it.

I'd suspect they are using Gramm because he made a stupid comment a few months ago, saying we can be a "nation of whiners". Not the best use of words..

Once again, for someone who claims that politics of the past are changing, Obama sure seems to want to come back and want to play these games... over and over and over and over and over again..

Obama and his old church

It was very, very convenient for Barack Obama to choose to go to his Black Liberation Theology Church in Chicago for over 20 years. He was able to "get in" with the black political establishment by being a pal of Jeremiah Wright and others who help control the ever so corrupt political machine. NOTE: If you want to know more about it's corruption, do a google search on it. You'll learn a lot.

Nonetheless, Obama maintains that he had NEVER heard any of Wright's racist, anti-American, anti-establishment, cussing at the pulpit. If you believe Obama on this, I feel very sorry for you. First, that you would believe this lie. Second, that you would allow yourself to be led by someone who goes to a hate filled church, and doesn't see it as that. Obama, on numerous occasions, said that his church is "a normal, christian church". If his church is a "normal" Christian church, then maybe I'm out of touch.

State Polls

Interesting Polls over the past week:

New York: Sienna Poll has Obama 46-41. I don't believe it's this close. Obama will still win by double digits, just maybe not by 20 points like you'd expect. Nonetheless, it's interesting seeing a NY poll anywhere near sniffing distance.

New Jersey: Two polls have 48-45 last week. To an extent, the same thing as New York. Obama would have to do something very bad in order to lose New Jersey. Or McCain will have to over produce expectations. I still see Obama by 7-9 points here. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it became a little tighter the way Bush was able to do in the waning weeks of 00 and 04 by getting within 2-3 points before tailing off.

Minnesota: Rasmussen has it 45-45. A couple others have 47-45 Obama. Obama is still the odds on favorite here. Bush came very close twice, but still lost by 1-3 points. I'd expect the same, even if McCain were to pull ahead. The tide is in the Democrats side this year, especially in a state where Republicans always are competitive, but never seem to cross the finish line.

Wisconsin: Several polls have it within a point or two, some have it dead even. Either way, if Obama loses this state, he's in trouble. With that being said, I expect Obama to eke out a victory here.

Ohio: Polls are all over the place here. A few polls have Obama ahead, but the majority have McCain still ahead. I'd be very surprised if McCain lost here. If he does, Obama wins the election.

Pennsylvania: Most polls are within the margin of error, but I believe Obama still has the edge. Once again, if McCain wins, or pulls resources away from Obama's team, that might be good enough here.

Michigan: Obama is still showing a 2-4 point lead in most polls. I'm a little surprised McCain isn't dead even here. I believe the election may hinge on this state. If McCain pulls it out, it may not matter if Obama flips states such as Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.

Iowa: Most polls have Obama leading outside the margin. Once again, I'd be SHOCKED if McCain came close here, despite Bush winning four years ago.

Colorado: Still a toss-up, with polls being all over the place. I'd still say McCain wins, but it'll be close.

Virginia: McCain still is a little ahead. And once again, I'd be surprised if McCain were to lose, despite the growing Northern Washington suburbs favoring the Democrats.

Nevada: McCain leads most of the polls, but within the margin of error. Obama has a chance, but McCain wins here.

New Mexico: Just like Nevada, but the reverse. Obama should win here.

Florida: McCain will win. Period. Even if we see Obama take a lead, I still don't believe he has a chance here.

Updated polls from this week..

Mr. Barack Hussein Obama has seen a positive shift in momentum since his bad last 3 weeks in the polls nationally. In most polls, Obama has an insignificant lead within the margin of error. Most of them hover around 47-45 for Obama. There's a couple of them out that has McCain still up. But for the most part, McCain's convention bounce has subsided.

A few things that can/will dramatically shift the race in the next six weeks:

• The presidential debates. In 2000, Bush overperformed expectations and went from being down 4-6 points, to being dead even. Gore looked like the class bully, the know it all.
• The VP debates. 3 things could happen- Palin could look overmatched on foreign policy; Biden could look old and tired; or they have equally good and bad moments.
• Big economic news; This past week, Obama has gained because of Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie, AIG, Merril Lynch, showing weaknesses. In other words, no matter whose fault it is, it will look bad for Republicans.
• Foreign Policy news; Can look good or bad for each party: The Russia/Georgia conflict hurt Obama, as he looked weak-kneed. And Americans were reminded that Obama has a United Nations mentality- give the bad guy every benefit of the doubt.

Freddie Mac And Fannie Mae debacle

Just to set the record straight for all those who think it's the Bush Administration's fault for all the Wall Street mess-

The Clinton Administration founded Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae as a partial government assisted financial agency. This agency was designed to make mortgages more readily available to people who would otherwise not be able to get a loan for a home. As you can imagine, top Democrat officials have received huge benefits from working with these mortgage giants. Jim Johnson, Jaime Gorelick (26M), Franklin Raines-Clinton Budget Director (50M) all received enormous sums from these companies, yet we don't hear a peep from the mainstream media about this. Wonder why??

The top senators who received money from Freddie and Fannie are Chris Dodd (167K), John Kerry, and none other than Mr. Barack Hussein Obama (126K). This is after just FOUR years in the senate. Pot calling the kettle black, Mr. Obama? If you haven't noticed, Obama is blaming McCain for being a part of the lobbyists in Washington. In his career, McCain has taken 20K from Fannie and Freddie. I wonder who is in bed with these company's?? Based on the donations, Obama seems to be.

For all you Democrats and/or Liberals

This is a case why I know, for a fact that your policies, ideas, way of thinking in America are wrong for our country.

CHOICE:

• Abortion. Democrats, in large part, are so socially liberal, being pro-life means being treated like a pariah. Take Gov. Casey being dis-invited to the 1992 convention to speak because he was pro-life. Does anyone know that Clinton, Gore, Gephardt, Jesse Jackson, etc. were pro-life before running for president? I'll get some of their quotes soon, they're astounding in their support for the unborn. What gall to all of a sudden think they don't have rights anymore, now that they run for high office.
• School. Democrats think that parents don't or shouldn't have the ability to send their schools to the school of their choice. Obama, like all other Democrats, oppose school vouchers. A recent poll I saw said that 80% of blacks support school vouchers.
• Social Security. Republicans think that its citizens should have the ability to invest some of their OWN SS in higher return places, such as stocks and mutual funds. Democrats (see Al Gore) want to put that money in a "lock box". Therefore not allowing seniors to even try to get a higher return on their investment.

DEFENSE:

• Democrats give the bad guys the benefit of the doubt. To the extent that they believe terrrorists deserve habeas corpus and legal council. Give me a break, should we give them tea and cookies while they are waiting? THEY WANT TO KILL AMERICAN PEOPLE!!!!
• FISA, Patriot Act, Gitmo- I'm lumping these all into one for this argument. Even liberals and Democrats agreed with these after 9/11. Reason being? EVERYBODY thought we'd get attacked again and we needed to use every measure possible to keep from allowing this. If you want to, go look at the Democrats who supported these new functions after 9/11. The same jerkoffs who say it is infringing on our civil liberties. SCREW THEM!!!
• FISA- Liberals think the telecommunication company's and the evil Bush are listening to our personal calls. And these people are pathetic enough to think that our government has time to listen to them. They cry their civil liberties are being taken away. Wake up- They are only listening on calls coming in of the country, going out, or calls within that has evidence that the person may be a potential suspect.
• GITMO- These are terrorist suspects being held in our prison in Cuba. It's been documented that many of them that have been released have been seen in the battlefield in Iraq or Afghanistan. Yet Democrats think they deserve every right as an American. They are terrorists, not enemy combatants. Yet on multiple reports, it's been known that they get very decent lifestyles, in which they DO NOT deserve.
• Treating Terrorism like law enforcement - How many times did we hear Clinton in his state of the union speeches address the need to respond to terrorist attacks. Same went for Kerry. You'd need a lot of time devoted to hearing this from Kerry in 04. During the primaries, to impress the liberal die-hards, Obama said countless times how we need to respond in kind to those who attack us and bring them to justice. Difference is- Republicans go after them and want to cut their heads off!
• Iraq- The vast majority of Democrats voting to go in and take out the regime in 2002, saying it had to be done because of fear of the chemical and biological weapons that were unaccounted for. Now they sing a different tune. And least Hillary had the balls (seriously) to not apologize for her vote. She did the right thing with what she knew.
• Surge- Even though Obama says it's been a bigger success than even Bush could have predicted, he still says it was a mistake. Is he an idiot?? Apparently so! All the facts fly in the face of what he says about the surge.
• Still not attacked since 9/11- Do Democrats think this is an accident? Imagine Kerry or Obama in the wake of 9/11. Very scary!
• Obama smarter than Petraeus?- Obama believes we should still leave Iraq, no matter that we are winning. Petraeus, Crocker, Millen, and all other Generals say it would be disaster if we left now. We can leave winning WHEN the Generals on the ground say it's right to do so. Why doesn't Obama get called on this more often? Let me ask again, does Obama think he knows more than the Generals on the ground?

ECONOMY:

• Tax, tax, tax, that's what Democrats believe. Are we done?
• Democrats and liberals truly believe that they can handle your money better than you can. The proof is in the pudding. It's just a matter of fact.
• Democrats believe in- Death tax, Marriage tax, raising capital gains, raising dividends, raising income tax level, raising payroll taxes on businesses, raising oil tax, etc... Whereas Republicans killed the death and marriage tax, lowered Cap gains and dividends in half in some cases, lowered payroll, income, and pushed for lowering oil tax. These are facts.
• Obama's taxes are code for Welfare- Obama says he will lower taxes on 95% of Americans, but that's not really true. Instead, he wants those 40% or so who DON'T pay income tax to just simply get a rebate check. I call it a welfare check.
• Obama will lower taxes for the rest up until 95%, but has promised to raise the capital gains, dividends, bring back the death tax, and raise payroll taxes on businesses. I haven't heard him talk about the marriage penalty. So even though he wants to lower middle class taxes, will this be offset by raising taxes on said above taxes? Do your own math.
• Big Brother- Over-Regulation, wanting the government to be involved in EVERY little nook and cranny of ones life. This is what Democrats have always called for.
• Big Government Programs- With Obama's tax and spending plan, he has I believe 1 trillion in dollars that he has proposed that hasn't been paid for in his plan. Don't quote me on this, as I saw this on the news a few weeks ago... The point is, Democrats try they darndest to find ways to spend our money.
• Pork Projects- Although both party's are guilty of this, of the two candidates, only one tries to bring home the bacon for his state. That's Obama. Of the days he's actually been in Washington over the past 4 years, he's averaged nearly 1 million dollars per day in pork. Talk about wasteful spending. McCain rejects all pork spending.

CULTURE:

• Democrats and liberals have been labeled elitist, snobbish, arrogant for good reason. They look down at the fly over America. In general, they detest: 2nd Amendment rights, Christians or people of faith, pro-life advocates, those against same sex marriage, those for prayer in school, teaching of creationism in school, etc, etc, etc.
• 2nd Amendment- In 2000, Democrats lost because of this issue. Al Gore stumped on gun control and regulation in hotly contested states as Ohio, West Virginia, Tennessee (his own state). Many say he lost because of this. Nonetheless, it doesn't mean liberals don't hate people who protect themselves, hunt, or use guns for sport. Obama in his acceptance speech said like-minded people can want the protection of the 2nd amendment, as well as keeping automatic weapons out of the hands of thugs. Obama misses the point entirely. It's the gangs and thugs who get ILLEGAL access to guns. They aren't the law abiding citizens. Obama's incredibly naive if he thinks the ones who get licenses are the ones to worry about.
• Faith- Some Democrats and/or liberals are of faith, but most aren't. The ones who are, Kennedy, Obama, Kerry, etc. speak differently. Notice the difference between how they and Bush speaks about faith. To them, it seems like just another thing. To Bush, it's personal. This is why the large majority of people vote Republican.
• Abortion- See above. To be certain, Democrats and liberals of faith don't want abortion to interfere with law. Such things as life and death. Joe Biden thinks life begins at conception, yet supports abortion???? How does that jive with reality? Do Democrats of faith read Jeremiah 1:5, or Psalm? Apparently not!
• Same sex marriage- Most people in the heartland- Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, etc. will start voting more consistently Republican, as long as Democrats and liberals keep pushing the envelope on moral issues as this. Do Democrats of faith not read Sodom and Gomorrah??? Do they not believe in certain aspects of the Bible? Are they like Obama, who believe some passages in the Bible cannot be taken literally anymore? What a COMPLETE JOKE LIBERALS ARE!!!!!!
• Clinging to our guns and Religion- Obama said that's what people do during hard times. He said this at a rally in San Francisco. I really think there is a very deep disconnect between liberals and people of faith. Faith is not something we "cling" to in hard times.
• Prayer in school, Pledge of Allegiance, taking down Crosses, etc.- This is the liberal mantra. They believe there is no place for this in the public square. Even though our country was founded on Christian principles and the majority of Americans believe in Christianity. Groups as the ACLU are a disease to our country. And we know liberals and Democrats support the ACLU in mass numbers. I've yet to meet a conservative who thinks what the ACLU does helps our country in any way.

ENERGY:

• I've covered this on a few blogs in August. Nonetheless, over 70% believe we need more drilling, yet liberal Democrats have spent the past year not allowing a vote in the House or Senate.
• Fact is, Liberals do not want oil drilling. This is because they in bed with environmental causes.
• Liberals and Democrats don't mind higher fuel prices- Obama admitted that he's more concerned about the rapid rise, rather than the actual prices. And when you add emission caps, etc., this only raises prices.

MORE TO COME ON THIS SUBJECT LATER..........

Obama's Foreign Policy

Here's some aspects of the way Freshman Barack Obama sees our Foreign Policy:

• In May 08 said that countries like Iran don’t pose a threat to us because they are ‘tiny’ countries, as opposed to USSR back in the 80's.
• Met with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez to discuss Chávez's support of the Marxist FARC guerrillas in Colombia. The next day, in Miami, he insisted any country supporting the FARC should suffer "regional isolation."
• In a debate last July, Mr. Obama pledged to meet, without precondition, the leaders of Iran, North Korea, Syria and Cuba. He called President Bush's refusal to meet with them "ridiculous" and a "disgrace. He's claimed, in defense of his position, that John F. Kennedy's 1961 summit with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna was a crucial meeting that led to the end of the Cold War. Not quite. Kennedy himself admitted he was unprepared for Khrushchev's bullying. "He beat the hell out of me," Kennedy confided to advisers. The Soviet leader reported to his Politburo that the American president was weak. Two months later, the Berlin Wall was erected and stood for 28 years. Hillary Clinton believes this policy is “incredibly naïve”. Even she gets it.
  
• Wants to meet with any rogue dictator, but hasn’t meet with General David Petraeus or Amb. Ryan Crocker about success in Iraq after the Surge.
• Obama makes blanket statement against having nuclear weapons at our disposal: "I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance" in Afghanistan or Pakistan, Obama said. He then added that he would not use such weapons in situations "involving civilians." Clinton blasted him for this: "Presidents since the Cold War have used nuclear deterrents to keep the peace, and I don't believe any president should make blanket statements with the regard to use or nonuse," Clinton said.

You can't make this stuff up

A few things that were kinda weird today from the campaign trail....

• Democrat Rep. Steven Cohen says, "Jesus, like Barack Obama, was a community organizer. While the person who had Jesus put to death was a Governor." Was he implying this to Governor Sarah Palin? Why else would he have said this?
• Carol Fowler, running the DNC in South Carolina said "Sarah Palin's primary qualifications is that she hasn't had an abortion." Wow, what a load of BS. She is a disgrace for saying this.
• Fowler's husband, Don, said before Hurricane Gustav that it proves that God is on the Democrats side because the hurricane would halt or suspend the Republican convention. I think the Fowler tandem needs to simply go away!
• Obama has now attacked Sarah Palin 5 times in the past 6 days. You would think that he was running against her. Embarrasing.

Dodgers 2009

Here's a look at what I think the Dodgers should do this offseason-

There are several big contracts coming off the books. These are close estimates: Nomar (9M), Kent (9M), Lowe (10M), Penny (8M), Bennett (2M), Loaiza (7M), Furcal (14M), Beimel (1M).

Nomar- Let him go. That's WAY too steep of price. Money better used elsewhere. He's not a starter anyway.
Kent- He'll retire. Even if he wants to still play, Blake DeWitt is ready to take over at 2B, and gets paid the minimum.
Lowe- Good pitcher, but let me walk.
Penny- Let him go.
Bennett- Let him go.
Loaiza- Dead money. He's already gone.
Furcal- Bring him back (more on him below)
Beimel- Re-sign him for one year.

And here's what we do with the 45M we let go (Furcal's $$ above not included in 45M, but will not require 14M to resign him, so the 45M may be as high as 50-52M:

Resign Manny. Do whatever it takes, even 4 years/80M, which might get it done. So that's 20M per season.
Sign CC Sabathia. Again, do whatever it takes. His salary, even around 18M, would just be a replacement of Lowe and Penny. And with Penny going downhill and oft-injured, it's basically a Lowe for CC swap. And word is the Dodgers are his first choice, so it can be done.
Resign Casey Blake at the same 1 year/6M deal he has now to play third.
Resign Furcal for 2 years, heavy incentive laiden. Where he can earn up to 10M if he's healthy. If the gamble doesn't pay off, keep Berroa, or maybe Hu will be ready. In any case, there's nothing close to the potential that Furcal has out on the FA market. It's worth the gamble. If healthy, next to Manny, Furcal's our best offensive player. And our best defensive. To top it off, he WANTS to be resigned by the Dodgers.
Resign Park to one year deal, around 2M.
Add a 5th starter for 2-3M.

So with all of this, our payroll next season will be roughly the same, depending on a few things. Nonetheless, it would be a GREAT sell. We'd definitely be the team to beat, merchandise and attendance would spike with CC and Manny. Plus, after next season, 34M of dead money is freed up (Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt). So if McCourt wants to slash payroll a little, he just has to bite the bullet for one year, then get the refreshing 34M off the books with these bums.

Our lineup would look like this:

Furcal SS
Ethier RF
Manny LF
Loney 1B
Kemp CF
Blake 3B
Martin C
DeWitt 2B

Our rotation would look like this:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Kershaw
Park
Unsigned fifth starter

Pen:

Saito
Broxton
Beimel
Wade
Elbert
etc..

This would win the division, no doubt. The other teams wouldn't be able to match up against us, when you include everyday lineup, rotation, and pen. And all this for the same payroll we have this year.

More on recent polling

Now that we are almost a week out from the conventions, the polls hasn't really started to clear up yet. The reason? Sarah Palin. She has totally flipped this race on its head. A few interesting points now that she is on the ticket:

• Before she was nominated as VP, McCain was drawing an average of 1,000 at rally's. Over the past 5 days, they drew 5,000 once, and as much as 13,000. They say they are averaging about 10,000. That's Obama-Biden territory.
• We tried getting tickets for Saturday's rally in Colorado Springs, but they were sold out. That's the event that had 13,000.
• As long as the media is still perceived by the majority of the public as crude and rude to Palin, it'll drive the GOP numbers further up. Remember when Clinton rallied after the media was taking it to her? Same thing.
• Palin has not only SAVED the Republican base and got them energized for the first time, but she has the appeal to draw independents and conservative Democrats to the GOP.

And a few polls....... (Caution- Although these numbers look promising for the GOP, if Palin's lure starts wearing off, as well as the convention bounce, the numbers will steady a little more for Obama and be neck and neck again).

• Over all polls taken, McCain for the first time has a higher average than Obama. Many say McCain's not leading yet because of the GOP brand, but it's probably a toss-up at this point.
• Among independents, McCain has opened up a 15 point lead according to Gallup 52-37.
• ABC News/Washington Post poll: McCain ahead by two.
• CNN poll: Tie
• CBS News: McCain up two.
• Gallup: McCain up four
• Gallup (Likely Voters): McCain up 10. (possible outlier, this poll has always been high for McCain compared to others).
• Gender Gap: Women- McCain 46. Men- McCain 52. Bad numbers for Obama. Obama needs to win the women vote by 8-10. He currently leads women by 2-4. That won't get it done. Reason being? Men vote GOP in much larger numbers.

Close states

Of course, who really cares about national polls. They give you a picture, but state by state gives us a better picture. Here's what I see from some hot, contested states:

Iowa- Obama will win. I don't have much doubt. This is made up of a very liberal vs. very conservative state. Liberals love Obama, conservatives are luke-warm on McCain. So even though Bush won in 04, I see it flipping back to the Dems. Obama wins

Minnesota- Obama will win. Surprisingly, Bush barely lost in 00 and 04. However, I don't think Obama will lose. It'll be within 3-4 points I think. Obama wins

Ohio- McCain will win. There are too many conservative Democrats (Reagan democrats) that aren't too sure of Obama. Obviously, Obama will be big in the University (Columbus), as well as Cincinnati and especially Cleveland that have big black turnout. However, the rest of the state favors McCain. Should be within 3-4 points for McCain. McCain wins

Pennsylvania- If I had to pick, I'd say Obama, but in a squeaker. Just because his black turnout will be HUGE in Philly and Pittsburgh. However, just as Ohio, many conservative Dems will be scared of Obama and his liberalism. And McCain will dominate in the West and Plains. Obama wins

Michigan- Again, very close. If I had to pick, I'd say McCain will win. Although Obama is ahead in every poll I've seen lately, I just think McCain will sell well in Michigan. Same conservative Democrats will back McCain. Also, Kwame Kilpatrick, the mayor of Detroit, is now in jail for many charges. The reason this means something is because just 16 months ago, Obama supported Kilpatrick, giving him a big hug, saying he's "a great mayor". This will hurt Obama very much in the Detroit suburbs. Plus, the blacks in Detroit will feel betrayed after Obama renounced Kilpatrick today. Finally, the Governor, Granholm, is VERY unpopular in her state. But I'd even be more confident if Romney were the VP, as his Dad was very popular as Michigan's Governor. Right now, I'd say 55-45% chance for McCain. McCain wins (maybe)

Florida- McCain will win. I don't think it'll be close. More like 04 than 00. I'd guess a 4-6 point victory. Lieberman and Giuliani, as well as Charlie Crist will help McCain. And the Cubans in Miami, who already vote Republican in large numbers, are terrified of Obama. Giuliani and Crist will play well to the moderates, Lieberman to the socially liberal Jews, but strong on security. And Palin will rack in the conservatives in Tampa and the Panhandle. If Hillary were the candidate, it would be a 2000 too close to call. McCain wins

New Hampshire- I'd say McCain, but barely. McCain will win big numbers of independents. He's hugely popular there as an independent thinker. Independents in NH are much bigger numbers than anywhere else. This is really the only New England State that even has a chance to be in the GOP column. Lieberman will also be a help there. If this were a different year and the GOP didn't look so unpopular, McCain might win this state going away. As is, very close, but I'd still say McCain. McCain wins

Colorado- Now my home state. Before Palin was announced, I'd say 50-50. Now? McCain, but once again, barely. And I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won. Obama's numbers in Denver and Boulder will be huge. Denver suburbs will be a toss up. McCain will win huge in Colorado Springs. Very close, but McCain for now. McCain wins (maybe)

Virginia- McCain. It'll be close, but Democrats haven't gotten the presidential nod in Virginia since '64. They may choose Democrats lower on the ballot, but I don't think it'll flip. The huge black population will be offset by the huge retired military. McCain by 2 points here. McCain wins

North Carolina- Although Bush blew Kerry out after Dems thought they had a chance in 2004, will it be any different? I think so, but McCain still wins here by 5 points. However, McCain will have to show up here to defend his turf, which won't help. Obama will close in because of the big black turnout and the Raleigh-Durham school turnout. McCain wins

Nevada- McCain by 3-4 points here. The culinary union will be huge for Obama. But McCain is usually up here, according to the polls. Plus, he's in neighboring Arizona, so he's a Westerner. Very close race. McCain wins

Wisconsin- Obama wins here. Amazingly, Bush barely lost in 04. One of the closest 2-3 states last time around. However, just like Iowa, Obama has the tide rolling for him. He has a HUGE university base in Madison, plus pasty white liberals. Fairly close, but Obama gets the nod. Obama wins

New Mexico- I think Obama will barely win this state, just as McCain barely wins Nevada. Just like Nevada, there's more registered Dems than Republicans, but these Dems will stay home. They are more Indian and Mexican Democrats, who rely heavily on the government to help them. Plus, Bill Richardson, its Governor, will help Obama out here. Will be 3-4 point win. Obama wins

Washington and Oregon- Forget about it, Obama will blow McCain away in both of these states.

Entire South McCain will win, despite Obama getting big black turnouts in places like Mississippi and Louisiana.

In summation, this race will again come down to just a few states. As seen above, McCain will have to defend more red states than Obama will. However, Obama will have to take some red states. McCain just simply has to defend.

Like in 04, when it came down to close states as Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa (Bush wins), and Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Minnesota (Kerry wins), it'll be decided by a select few. I'd guess that the BIGGEST states to watch come November 4th are Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, which were red states; and New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennyslyvania, which were blue states.

If, for instance, Obama plucks Ohio or Florida, the only way McCain wins is if he can take a electoral rich state as Michigan or Pennsylvania. My guess is if Obama takes either Florida or Ohio, he wins. If he doesn't, but takes Virginia AND Colorado, he wins. On the other hand, if McCain can hold Ohio and Florida, if he takes Michigan or Pennsylvania, he wins no matter how many little states Obama takes.

As a Republican in 2004, I liked the map better for Kerry. However, Bush held everything he was supposed to. So it's literally impossible to know what'll happen in 8 weeks. My guess is McCain will win this election, but barely. However, Obama can still win going away and I wouldn't be surprised.

To be continued.....

A few interesting polls

On Friday morning, before the full 3 day affects of McCain's and Palin's speeches, Rasmussen poll has it 48-46 Obama (within the margin of error). NOTE: Rasmussen is the most accurate poll over the past two cycles. It nailed the 2004 election almost dead on.

CBS Poll- 42-42 dead even. Last week Obama was up 8 points. This has notoriously been a Democrat tilted poll.

51% believe the press has been unfair on Palin, according to Rasmussen. 35% say they have been fair.

58% approve of Palin; Obama and McCain are at 57%, according to Rasmussen.

The average of ALL polls taken have Obama averaging up 2.6. It's been going down, as last month it was in the 4-5% spot.

By the end of the weekend, we should know where things are at after the two VP picks and both conventions.

Obama and the truth separate

Let's count the ways. Call it flip-flopping, call it re-adjusting, call it lying, you make the call....

• Said in the primaries in 2007 and early 2008 that he would LEAD the fillibuster charge against wiretapping. He ended up voting for this bill.
• He consisently said the surge didn't work, even military wise. Finally, in May, he gave a crack that conditions have improved in small part because of the surge. But still said it was a mistake. Then, in July, said the same thing- that he wouldn't have supported the surge. Now, for the first time, he's saying “I’ve already said it’s succeeded beyond our wildest dreams.” Umm, he's NEVER said this. We'll see when O'Reilly asks him, but he's still not said he made a mistake when he said after Bush announced plans for the surge. He said "I don't know anybody who thinks that an extra 30,000 troops would do any good."
• Obama consistently said that McCain wants war in Iraq for 100 years. Besides being a lie, there’s nothing wrong with this statement. McCain actually said as long as nobody is dying and they are safe, we should keep an unlimited presence there. Just like Japan, Germany, France, etc. after wars. Obama STILL has not cleared his lie as inaccurate.
• After all of Jeremiah Wright's racist, American hate filled comments, Obama said he had NEVER heard him say anything controversial..... The very next day in Philadelphia, he said "have I ever heard him say anything controversial, yes. But I can no more disown him than I can the black community"...... Five weeks later he disowned him after more comments. Now anyone who believes Obama didn't know anything about HIS pastor and close confidant are delusional, plain and simple.
• "The failure of the Iraqi state would be a disaster," he said at a lunch sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, according to an audiotape of the session. In late winter, 2008, on the campaign trail, Obama says he wants to bring the troops home yesterday -- you decide -- was he lying then or is he lying now?
• During ALL of the primaries, Obama said he'd accept Public Financing. But, he went back on his word and is now lying. His excuses were so weak, even liberals have to laugh. He said he's doing this because of all of the 527 groups will be attacking him. Well, apparently Obama doesn't think he has any 527 groups supporting him. Laughable.

To BE CONTINUED.....

Palin hits a homerun

WOW!!!!!!!!

That's the best word to describe Sarah Palin last night. It's true in every sense of the word. Great oratator (just like Obama), great moxie, very easy on the eyes. Here's a few quick things I noticed from her speech last night.

Palin's teleprompter failed her last night. During extended applause, the teleprompter continued to scroll. So for a large chunk of the speech, she ad-libbed. What an amazing job. She didn't stumble once, was strong in her words, yet seemed extremely relaxed and poised. Something many were surprised to see for a novice on the Big Stage. But many who know her (Bill Kristol, Dick Morris), were not surprised. It almost reminded me of Obama, and his eloquence when he speaks. Only difference is Obama has not proved he can speak well without being behind a lecturn, with a teleprompter. Not sure the date, but on CSPAN they showed a speech by Obama. His teleprompter went out. Until the problem was fixed, he stuttered, couldn't gather his thoughts, etc. It was quite remarkable given that he looks so smooth when he has the teleprompter.

That's probably the best GOP speech since Ronald Reagan. I mean, seriously, this speech was tremendous. She set this thing up in so many great ways: Introduced herself, her family, and her personal story; went into her accomplishments as a mayor and governor; defended many conservative qualities like lower taxes and drilling; ripping into Obama's inexperience, liberalism, and lack of judgment; and lifted her mate as the only truly tested candidate that can REALLY bring change to our politics in Washington.

Her blows on Obama hit the mark. She did it all with a smile on her face. Nothing was personal, just blasting Obama with the facts. My personal favorites were the blow about how Obama speaks to two different audiences (Scranton and SF); how Obama has two memoirs, but NO legislative accomplishments; and that as much as Biden and Obama say they will fight for us, only one in this race has truly "fought" for America. Classic!

Even the liberal media gave her kuddos. Although the liberal, borderline socialist MSNBC had some praise for her, she was still blasted. What a surprise. This network is an absolute joke, but that's another topic. The point is, after all of the media hubbub about her qualifications, Palin passed her first big test with flying colors.

More thoughts....

By Obama and Biden thinking this is a Bush third term, do they not see the differences McCain has with Bush and the Republican Party's orthodoxy?

• McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform. I, along with 99% of Republicans HATE this law.
• McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform. I, along with the vast majority of Republicans believe NO amnesty is acceptable for law breakers.
• McCain-Lieberman Global Warming and Greenhouse Gas Law. Republicans believe this raises energy prices (which it does, and man-made Global Warming is a far fetched idea, which it is).
• Voted no on Constitutional Amendment defining marriage between 1 man and 1 woman. Bush and most all Republicans support this.
• ANWR- Bush and all logical thinkers believe getting 1 million barrels of oil a day in a matter of 7-8 years is more important than restoring an area where NO humans go to, and still wouldn't kill the only moving things that see it (Caribou). But McCain is against drilling in ANWR.
• McCain was in favor of full stem cell research. Bush opposed any destroying of baby embryonic cells.

I'm still waiting to hear from Obama, and how he might differ from his party????????

Fact is, he's a liberal, progressive, socialist, Marxist, whatever you want to call it. And if something doesn't seem to support these ideals, he won't be for it. As much as he says he can work across party lines, HE HAS NOT DONE IT!!!! Him and his campaign state that the elimination of nuclear weapons that he co-authored with Senator Lugar was reaching across party lines. Give me a break. That's something that 100% of the US agree on. It's like saying that a rapist is a bad person.

Finally, this is something that should be pointed out again and again, very revealing:

Palin- "We have faith that every baby is created for good purposes and has potential to make this world a better place.”

Obama- "I don't want my daughters to be punished by a baby if they make a mistake."

Who cares that Bristol Palin is pregnant

What's with all the frenzy about Palin's family issues?

• Bristol Palin is pregnant. Why is this still talked about?
• Palin's husband had a DUI 20 years ago.

To point #1, we heard almost NOTHING from the media on John Edwards affair, and possible having a love child with his mistress. This was a major candidate for President in the Democrat party.

To point #2, it proves he makes mistakes. And stupid ones at that. But why does something a candidates spouse did 20 years ago a point worth pointing out by the media. If this is such a big issue, why isn't Obama's snorting cocaine a big issue?

Sexism?

The choice of Sarah Palin as the GOP VP pick has raised a lot of anger in the liberal mainstream media. Since the primaries, the Clinton camp complained about sexism in the media. Well, if they thought she had it bad, imagine how it would be to a newcomer. A conservative, pro-life, gun owner newcomer no less.

Here are some of the headlines around the country:

US Weekly- "Babies, Lies, and Scandal
New York Times- "Vice in Go-Go Boots
Slate- "No Experience Necessary" (Are they talking about Obama or Palin?)
Daily Telegraph- "How Good a 'Mom' Can Sarah Palin Be?"

Now many pro-Clinton groups are coming to the defense of Palin.

Obama not practicing what he preaches

On the day of Hurricane Gustav, Obama said rightly it was inappropriate to attack his opponent. McCain said the same thing:

• In Scranton, PA, Biden gives a scathing attack on McCain, how McCain has very poor temperment for being a president. So Obama doesn't attack, but has Mr. Plagiarism (Biden) do it for him. Now is that CHANGE??
• Says anyone who attacks Palin's daughters pregnancy would be fired from his campaign. Well, does Daily KOS website count? Obama has accepted their endorsement, has already spoken at their conference, along with Clinton, Edwards, Biden, and the rest of the Demorats minions. Obama doesn't have the fortitude to confront the Daily KOS for their vicious attacks because they are the biggest part of his base. You know, the far off left kooks of our nation that wishes we were France.
• In his acceptance speech, Obama stated that if McCain wants to talk about judgment and temperment, "that's a debate I'm willing to have anytime." ANYTIME Obama? Obama has rejected having joint townhall meetings with McCain. McCain wanted to have weekly townhalls with Obama, but Obama rejected. It's clear that without a telepromptor (see Saddleback), Obama is a very challenged speaker.

News coverage of Palin

Here's a few thoughts on what we've seen over the past few days....

• On September 2nd, the New York Times ran 3 front page stories on Palin's 17 year old daughter being pregnant, and its ramifications.
• On September 2nd, there was ONE small story in the NYT on one of the back pages of the Iraqi government now in charge of the Anbar Province (one of the deadliest areas in Iraq that Al-qaidi focused on). Apparently Bristol Palin is better news than success in Iraq.
• The remarkable display of immaturity, in the tank for Obama that MSNBC is. Did anyone see the fighting on air between Olbermann-Mathews? Scarborough-Shuster? Olbermann-Scarborough? What a laughingstock they are. No wonder they are at the bottom of the ratings on a nightly basis.
• Obama saying he has more experience than Palin. Forget the argument, why is Obama have to defend himself against the other parties' #2? How embarrasing.
• Many conservatives are seeing deja vu all over again. How the MSM (mainstream media) is ripping Sarah Palin on a daily basis. Remember how they were to Ronald Reagan? I guess this type of scrutiny should be worn like a badge of honor.

Finally, right after Palin's pick was announced by Fox News, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton went on the attack about Palin's lack of experience. 3 hours later, Team Obama backtracked and Obama congratulated Palin on the pick. Good for him!

Too bad they went on the attack right after the announcement was made. What a joke. Obama constantly says he rises above politics and the attacks. Whatever. Time and time again, Obama and his campaign has shown that this mantra of change and partisanship bickering will stop, it really hasn't.