This election will definitely be a referendum on President Obama, and his policies. If you ask Republicans, they have failed..... If you ask Democrats, they have succeeded..... if you ask Independents (who voted for him in large numbers), he has failed... and hence, that's why we're going to see a political massacre tonight....
But will it be?? Is it a typical midterm, where the sitting president loses his share of seats? Is it a midterm in which the natural political fluctuations occur, in which moderates look to balance a government that is owned by Democrats in both chambers of congress, as well as the Executive Office? Or is it just a tsunami, in which the country is sick and tired of how our congress and president thumb their noses at the country and not listen to us? If you look at incredibly unpopular policies that Obama has embraced--- Obamacare, stimulus, ground zero mosque, Arizona immigration, debt, overreach of gov't, etc., that's where you find your answer.
Because of this, here's what I'm guessing. Note- this could be way off, as it's hard to predict! :)
House of Representatives:
The GOP will pick up 53-66 seats. They need 39 to win back the majority. They will have more than enough. In a year in which Democrats took many conservative districts because of momentum and enthusiasm, these seats will go back to their rightful owners. In this, there will be around 37-45 seats that move back to the GOP, because Dems just simply couldn't hold these seats with a liberal congress that pushes government healthcare, cap and trade, huge debts, etc.
There will be another 15-20 seats that the GOP will pick up in districts that are swing, from R +3 to D +3. The main factor of this will be independents. Independents are against congressional Democrats by a roughly 60-40 margin. In this, that means HUGE changes because swing districts usually have roughly the same amount of D's and R's. Plus, some Independents will come out and vote R just as a repudiation of Obama and his policies.
Senate:
Republicans will be in line to pick off many seats, mostly in Democrat turf. Which means most of these seats are in states in which Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans. There will also be easy wins for the GOP in states that lean conservative. These are Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana. The ones in states that lean Democrat that the GOP is favored to win are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Nevada (tossup state with more registered D's).
Assuming the GOP picks up these states, they will be at 7, needing 10 for a senate majority. The other states that may go GOP include West Virginia. This is a state in which there's a Democrat who is popular, and is running square against Obama and his policies (cap and trade, health care, etc.). If the Democrat Manchin loses, this will open things up for the GOP to have a path toward a majority. If Manchin holds on, we may have to wait until 2012 to get a GOP senate majority.
I believe Washington and Colorado will be the closest two states. Republican Dino Rossi has a great chance at upsetting sitting senator Patty Murray in Washington. It's still an uphill climb, as the surrounding Seattle area (King County) still votes in high numbers for liberals. But in this election cycle, a cycle where Murray votes for everything government, this could be the year where she goes down.
The other states in which the GOP has a fighting chance is California. Simply, Carly Fiorina is a more impressive candidate than Barbara Boxer. But because Boxer is a liberal, she still is favored to win.
Here's my predictions for the Senate (Only using change of party predictions)
- Arkansas- Republican challenger Boozman leads going away. The rout is on. GOP pickup.
- Indiana- Republican challenger Dan Coats has this open seat wrapped up big. GOP pickup.
- North Dakota- Republican Governor John Hoeven has this seat wrapped up. He's been up by upwards of 40 points in the polls. GOP pickup.
- Wisconsin- Republican challenger Ron Johnson leads incumbent Dem Russ Feingold by over 7 points for the past month. Should range between 7-12 point victory. GOP pickup.
- Pennsylvania- Republican challenger Pat Toomey leads Dem Joe Sestak by around 4-5 points. Should be a Toomey victory, even in Dem state like PA. GOP pickup.
- Illinois- Republican Mark Kirk looks to hold off Dem Giannoulius for Obama's old seat. Even in this Dem state, Kirk has led by 3-4 pts. 80% chance Kirk wins. GOP pickup.
- Colorado- Republican challenger Ken Buck has led incumbent Michael Bennet on the last 10 polls. Still close, but probable Buck win by 2-6 points. 80% GOP pickup.
- Nevada- GOP challenger Sharron Angle continues to lead Majority leader Harry Reid by 3-4 points. I'm a little nervous, as the unions will be out in force for Reid. However, with his huge unpopularity, I think Angle wins. 60% GOP pickup.
- Washington- Challenger Dino Rossi has the deck stacked against him against incumbent Patty Murray because of voter registration. However, if this is a wave election, Rossi has a decent chance. 30% chance of GOP pickup. This should be a 0-4 point win by either side, very close.
- West Virginia- Republican John Raese trails Dem Joe Manchin. Reason- Manchin is denouncing Obama in a state that very much dislikes our current president. Because of this, Raese still has a chance, though likely a Dem retention. 25% chance of GOP pickup.
- California- With everything being equal, GOP'er Carly Fiorina is a much more impressive candidate, better speaker, has fresh ideas, etc. But in California, Boxer will get the lions share of SF and LA, and likely a victory. Fiorina's chance is at 15-20% in my mind.
If the GOP only gets 9 seats, they may try to entice moderate Dems Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson to switch over to caucus with the GOP. If that were the case, the GOP would have the majority.
