Additional races and amendments and props I'm watching

Besides the big one, here are some important Senate, Congressional, Gubernatorial, State, props, and amendments I'm closely watching. I'll add a quick blurp as to why it's important.

• California Prop 8: Defines marriage between ONE man and ONE woman. Maintains equal rights and benefits for same sex couples, but doesn't redefine marriage. NOTE: This passed in the liberal state of California several years back (Amendment 22), but was reversed by the CA liberal Supreme Court 4-3. My old home church, The Rock, and our pastor Miles McPherson is one of the leading vocal backers. Big bands, such as Third Day, have come to play music at the church in support of this prop. Yes
• Colorado Amendment 47: Union workers should be able to vote privately, and have their vote counted, rather than the higher ups determine their vote. Yes
• Colorado Amendment 48: Defines personhood at moment of conception. Yes
• Colorado Senate seat: Udall is ahead in the polls against Bob Schaffer. Vote Schaffer.
• Colorado State Senate: Matt Fries. He introduced Jess and I to Fort Collins. Told us about the town, what churches are around here, etc. Great guy!
• Colorado Rep: Marilyn Musgrave
• Colorado Rep: Bob McCluskey
• Pennsylvania Rep: Iraq War Vet John Russell over John Murtha. Murtha last week called his district 'racist' and 'redneck'. Also accused our troops of murder in Iraq. Murtha has been in the House for 34 years. This would be AWESOME if he got defeated. It's close right now.
• Washington Gubernatorial: Republican Dino Rossi against incumbent Chris Gregoire. In case you missed 04, Rossi initially won, until the 2nd recount, when Gregoire went ahead. Many independent analysts say Rossi was cheated and the fight was stopped when Gregoire finally went ahead. Even the liberal Seattle Times endorsed Rossi.
• Kentucky Senate: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in dog fight with Bruce Lunsford. I'm not a big fan of McConnell, but he's better than Lunsford. Would be a huge loss in red state, and having the leader in the senate defeated.
• Minnesota Senate: Now if Al Franken defeats Norm Coleman, I will consider my wife's home state officially delusional (I think they already are, but it's not the point right now). Franken is a communist hack, he has no place in leadership. The Independent candidate may hurt Coleman's chances, just like Perot killing Bush Sr. chances against Clinton in 92. I still think Coleman wins, but it's one to watch.
• North Carolina Senate: Elizabeth Dole is about to get defeated by Kay Hagan. Dole has great name recognition and all, but I personally am not impressed with her. I like her political views of course, but she lead the Senate re-election fight in 06. It was bad anyway, but she was brutal in interviews defending the GOP's case. I could have done a better job than her. :)
• Oregon Senate: This would be a landmark victory for Dems. Gordon Smith is the last Republican Senator on the West Coast. He's in a dead heat, but I believe he'll go down because BHO is popular in my Dad's home state. Hey, at least my Dad thinks Obama is crazy. I couldn't be any more proud, Pops!
• Louisiana Senate: Mary Landrieu is about the lone Democrat that has a chance at losing. The state is trending even more strongly GOP, but she may be moderate enough to still win.
• Nebraska Senate: It will stay in GOP hands, but thank God Hagel is retiring. I actually wish he would have ran again, so he could suffer the humiliation of getting pounded in a GOP primary.

Polls to watch Tuesday

Though Republicans and Conservatives (sometimes two in one) have little to be happy about right now politically, there still is hope. I've followed politics for several cycles now, and know that what pundits say doesn't necessarily determine what will actually happen.

Right now, if I were a betting man, I'd say 75-25 for Obama. But you have to understand that 25% can be hit at any time. Did anybody give the Giants a chance to beat the Patriots? I'd say less than 25% did.

So, what has to happen on election day for McCain to still win? Here are some key points looking at the political landscape and at some key states:

1. There are still many, some polls say as much as 18% undecided voters. Most pundits expect the majority to break for McCain. Reason being? If one is on the fence with Obama still, they most likely aren't very comfortable with him. Also, there are NO undecided blacks. And when you factor McCain's usually 15 point advantage among whites, the numbers say McCain will get the vast majority of the undecideds.
2. Joe The Plumber- Many independents are economically conservative and socially liberal. Since social issues are not as front as center this year (gay marriage, abortion, poverty), economics take rein. And many of the independents and soft democrats worry about the government taking more of their money. And Obama admitted as much by wanting to "spread the wealth" around. This isn't popular to most Americans. Fact is, Obama will raise dividends, capital gains, on the majority of small businesses (who fall under the "rich" category), estate tax..... And don't forget the welfare handout- 40% of the 95% that Obama is promising tax cuts to, aren't even paying federal income taxes. This is essentially a government handout, eg- socialism...

States to focus on Tuesday:

1. Ohio- Obama leads most polls now, around the average of 4%. I don't believe it's 4% though. I still think, call me crazy, that McCain will win here. If he doesn't, which is very possible, the numbers don't add up to McCain winning the Electoral College.
2. Florida- As Ohio, Obama is showing a lead. But again, I still think McCain will win. The absentee ballots in Florida, which historically go around 70-30 for Republicans, aren't taken into account in most polls. This is still part of the South, albeit its own beast. Alas, I think McCain will still win. As I said in earlier posts, Giuliani (national security hawks), Gov. Crist (Centrists), Senator Lieberman (Jews) will help tremendously.
3. North Carolina- Once again, McCain needs this state. He's running behind, but again, he has a great chance at still winning here. Like I pointed out a few months ago in a post, blacks and the university triangle around Raleigh and Durham, will come out in droves for Obama. But NC is still a GOP bastion and has a huge military influence.
4. Virginia- A few months ago, I never thought Obama would hold a commanding lead. But he is showing a 6-7 point lead. GOP has won 13 of 14 presidential elections, so the GOP has hope still, at least historically.
5. Colorado- This looks like it's going to Obama. There's only 9 EV here, but it would be a huge loss for McCain.
6. Missouri- Toss up. Still McCain has to be favored here.
7. Nevada- Toss up. Obama is slightly favored. Only 5 EV here.
8. New Mexico- Wind at Obama's back, he should win.
9. Pennsylvania- This is the first state that Bush didn't win. The above 8 were red states in 04. If McCain can stun Obama here, that would be the opening he needs.
10. New Hampshire- Obama has the edge, but McCain has a big following here. 70-30 Obama in my mind. Only 4 EV here.

All in all, here's the scenario I can see if McCain can win:

If McCain can keep Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida, which I think he can, he has a chance. Keeping these states, he can lose Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), and New Hampshire (4) that Bush won in 04. The big kicker is McCain HAS to win Pennsylvania to make up for these losses. Possible, but it's like McCain getting an inside straight. If all of this happens, McCain wins 273-265 (270 Electoral Votes is the magic number).

Christianity- Voting against liberals and Obama

I understand everybody has their right to vote their conscience. Although I think many people, including Christians, get caught up in the hype of a candidate. This couldn't be any more true than this year, where it is "trendy" to tell people you are backing Barack Obama.

Many Christians cite several reasons as to why their faith supports their backing of Obama. Here are some of them- Obama cares more for the environment; Obama wants to give more to the needy; Obama doesn't want war; Obama is moderate on abortion rights; Obama believes marriage is between one man and one woman; Obama has been a Christian for a few decades, etc. (Let me know if I'm missing a big argument).

Here's the counter that I see as a Christian in no particular order of voting against any liberal, which includes Obama:

Giving to needy- Republicans give FAR more to charity than do liberals. In 2005, the percentages was something like 7.8% to 2.6%. (Don't quote me on this, but it is something close to this as I remember). The point is, we shouldn't be told what or where we should give our earnings to. So don't let a liberal fear you into believing Republicans don't do the "Jesus Act" of giving. We just want to be able to decide this for ourselves, not having the government decide where our money goes.

I believe the Bible teaches us to respect the environment and take care of it. There's a fine line between doing that, and worshipping it the way many liberals do. McCain has fought and introduced a bill limiting carbon emissions, and against warming of the earth (although I don't believe we are the main cause of warming). It seems there is a logical, fair balance between taking care of our Earth, and letting it determine how we live our lives.

Obama isn't against war- He wants more boots on the ground in Afghanistan. He believes that we went into Bosnia and Kosovo for the right reasons. So for those who support him because he is against war, these people are either mis-informed, or drinking the Obama kool-aid. Obama just chose not to support the Iraq war. Even today, he doesn't support the successes in Iraq, even though success is near and a new democracy is being formed in the middle east.

About war- Who do you trust as a Christian? Charles Stanley's belief that the Bible isn't against war, that there are times for it. Or do you trust Jeremiah Wright, Father Pfleger, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton, that all war is immoral?

Obama believes his old church was "a normal Christian church". Now that is a load of crap. If ANYONE believes that Jeremiah Wright's church is a normal church, their intelligence should be checked. Seriously, can one imagine if McCain, or any other Republican, attended a racist church? That in and of itself would disqualify them from running for President of the US. Obama sat in the pews of Jeremiah Wright's racist, anti-semitic, over the line church for 20 years and didn't think there was any problem? What does that say about judgment? That's right, I forgot, Obama never heard any of these crazy sermons where Wright Damn's America, saying the chickens have come home to roost after 9-11, that our gov't created aids to kill off blacks, that our country should be called US of KKK A. Obama's next book should be called "The Audacity of Ignorance".

Had Father Pfleger and Wright as his spiritual advisors. Once again, WOW. That is absolutely breathtaking!

Abortion- For me, supporting a politician starts right here. If one believes in the sanctity of life (Jeremiah 1:5, among others), how can you support such a radical pro abortion candidate? Here's Obama's past and record regarding abortion:

• Voting against the Infant Born Alive Act in the Illinois state senate.
• Vowed to Planned Parenthood that the first thing he'd do is fight for the Freedom of Choice Act (FOCA) once he got into office.
• Believes that Partial Birth Abortion is a normal medical procedure and should be legal.
• Said if his daughters got pregnant, he wouldn't want them to be "punished" by their mistake.
• Has a 0% rating from the National Right to Life Organization.

Obama believes that much of the Bible is not practical to life in 2008. Although doesn't it say in scripture that the Bible is "THE LIVING WORD?" Apparently, Obama seems to think some of it died along the way.

Regarding same sex marriage- http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=11991

Outlook going into the weekend

I haven't done a post in a couple weeks. It's not the gloom I've felt being a conservative. :) Work has been pretty busy.

Anyway, here's a rundown of what I've seen from the polls over the past several weeks and where we are today:

On September 25th, right before the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, AIG, etc. economic problems, McCain led a Real Clear Politics average of 2.1 points. Ever since then , Obama has had a lead that kept growing and growing. At certain points during this surge, there were polls that made it look like things were close again. But then we'd see more tracking polls with a wide lead for Obama. As for whether McCain should have suffered from this, it's only natural. Whenever bad news hits, the party in the White House will almost always receive the brunt of the criticism. As I posted previously, this thing is everybody's fault, not just Bush.

As of this past week, the average is 5.9 for Obama. Some of the most accurate polls in 2004 Investors Business Daily and Rasmussen, have the race even closer than that. So even though McCain is looking for a small miracle, it is still very possible. There are some things that will have to break his way in the final 5 days. We'll see....

Dodgers are done

The fairy tale Dodgers run is now over. Though stuck in mediocrity through August, The Dodgers ran away with the division over the past week and a half.

Next came the beatdown of the Cubs.

And for the series against Philly, the Dodgers lost 2 closely played games. But it came down to clutch hitting by the Phillies. And the Dodgers really didn't have any answer to them. Case in point:

Andre Ethier and Russell Martin. These are supposed to be our second and third best hitters on the team. Even though Manny was unbelievable, Martin and Ethier were brutal. In fact, pretty much every hitter was brutal. Besides Manny, Loney was the only one who was fairly consistent when guys were on base.

Blake DeWitt- Terrible. This guy KILLED rallies. He looked completely overmatched in the postseason. He did get one big hit, albeit against softball pitcher Jaime Moyer.

Matt Kemp- He had a few hits, but none when he had a chance to drive in runs and make an impact. He oftentimes looked overmatched. Plus, he made a few defensive blunders.

Rafael Furcal- Looked ok on offense, nothing great. But I would give him the benefit of the doubt, being that he missed 145 games with a back injury. His defense in the Philly series hurt us quite a bit.

Casey Blake- Had a couple nice hits. Most of his chances though, he didn't come through.

The pitching seemed out of synch. The list starts with Chad Billingsley. He looked unsure of himself, and things continued to plummet once things started going wrong. He seemed incapable of righting the ship.

Is it over?

I guess most people are saying the race is over. There is a ton of evidence to make this a strong claim. And for those who do, many conservatives included, the odds are for them. But, 25 days is an absolute eternity when it comes to politics. Especially when we are dealing with a politician that is pretty well liked by the majority of Americans (McCain), and one who many still are unsure of (BHO).

Certaintly, the time when things were starting to turn on its head was when the economic calamidy happened. The fact that we have a sitting Republican president will get blamed by the majority, even though most even handed analysts say this problem was induced by all parties involved. To admit otherwise, most wouldn't take you seriously. Nonetheless, the fact that we are heading into a recession, the Dow has dropped 20% over the past couple weeks, credit is in the toilet, the housing market is in the outhouse, this is what you get. And the thing is, it's on every front page paper, every single day. And when people check their 401K's, they get pissed. And the Bush Administration would be the face of their anger, rightly or wrongly.

So, what needs to happen for McCain to get back into this thing? Here's some reasons to not feel totally deflated and depressed.

• With a spiraling economy, unpopular war, 8 years of a now unpopular president, McCain still is on average down 6 points when you take in account all polls. This includes Gallup, Hotline, Rasmussen, Wash Post, CBS News, Quinnipiac, etc.
• Ford trailed Carter 30 days out of the election by 30 points. Carter ended up winning by 1 point.
• McCain still leads big over Obama when it comes to who people see as a leader and Commander in Chief. This is no small thing.
• Obama is stalling. He is playing very catious. No bold moves. You know what happens when a defense in football plays prevent defense? They usually get burned in the end.
• Obama has so many ties to radicals, Marxists, very left leaning people and groups: William Ayers, Jeremiah Wright, Father Pfleger, Rashid Khalidi, Tony Rezko, attended the Million Man March with Farakhan, ACORN, Saul Alinsky.
• Obama has lied about his relationships- Not knowing of Wrights racists rants in church, saying Ayers was only someone in his neighborhood, when everyone knows he was MUCH more than that.
• ACORN- Already voter fraud allegations in 13 states. This includes battleground states Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, and Florida.
• ACORN cont- Several ACORN members have already been arrested for voter fraud.
• Country wants more bipartisanship- McCain provides this. Is against his party and with Democrats on GITMO, Global Warming, Against Constitutional amendment defining marriage, torture, against drilling in ANWR, part of gang of 14 on judges, pro-embryonic stem cell, etc..
• Obama has not opposed his Democrat party-line on ANYTHING, despite his call for change.
• Obama, without a doubt, is the most liberal candidate in history. Fact is, our country is still a center-right country.
• Bradley effect- Nobody knows what having a black candidate will result at the polls. There are many white democrats who just can't see themselves voting for Obama because of race, much less independents. Many say the Bradley effect (where voters won't admit to pollsters that they won't vote for a black candidate), can result as much as 3-5 points in certain states.

Obama's socialism

Obama wants to raise taxes on the top income earners in America-

• To Charlie Gibson, he says it's only fair.


• To O'Reilly, he says it's the neighborly thing to do.

I call it income redistribution. Moreover, socialism. The top income earners pay more than their "fair share". I would invite those who disagree to look at the tax charts. You'd be amazed at the % they pay.

Obama all over the map on capital gains and dividends tax. But he has promised to raise this from Bush's levels. In the primaries, he said in the ballpark of 25-30%.

To O'Reilly he said he might go down to 20%. He's incoherent on this. He's simply stating things the people want to hear. Can we get a straight answer Obama?

In spite of what he says, Obama has 293 billion in extra spending. Economists say there's no way he can take enough from the upper income taxpayers to pay for this spending. In the end, he will have to raise taxes on the middle class.

Then you can add on his wanting of Universal Healthcare, how much will that cost? Obama simply hasn't stated what it will cost.

Obama extending lead in battleground states

Things haven't looked so bleak for the McCain campaign. More on him in another post. The fact is, Obama is riding the winds of a economic crisis. It's a political gold mine that keeps on giving for Obama. As long as it stays on Page One, it helps him. It's nothing he's saying or did that increases peoples thoughts on him, it's that we have a Republican President and if things aren't going peachy, the party will got blamed.

• Quinnipiac state polls have Obama blistering McCain in a few key states. If these polls are closely true, game over.
• Florida- Obama is up 50-43. Obama has spent heavily here, and McCain hasn't spent a dime here. It is telling though, that there was an extreme oversampling of Democrats and blacks in this poll. And an undersampling of Cubans (reliably Republican). In my mind, I don't believe this poll until I see a few others like it.
• Pennsylvania- After being neck and neck, all of a sudden Obama is up 54-39. This isn't just an outlier, it's wrong. There is NO way Obama wins this state by 15. Not even close. This state, if Obama wins, will be no more than 5 points. However, big numbers like this only help a candidate.
• Ohio- 51-42 for Obama. Again, this poll is not to be believed unless there is another poll to support this.

In summation, the winds are very heavily at the back of Obama, and he has gained clearly on many battleground states. But these huge leads outside the margin of error truly cannot be believed. They just can't.

ACORN and Obama

I've spoken about the many, questionable to say the least, associations Obama has. ACORN, a pretty much "shake you down" organization that Obama worked for and represented, is another example. ACORN is a company that the Democrats put in the bail-out deal, that ACORN would profit off this deal. It's been notated and shot down by Republicans, rightfully so.

Here's an article that talks about ACORN and Obama-

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=307667123149723