Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Quick rundown of some Senate 2010 contests

Here's a July rundown of a few Senate races that are starting to take shape. All of the tea leafs would show that the GOP is in for a big November. If you look at voter intensity, Obama's diminished support, runaway spending by congress and the president, you have recipes for disaster for a party that controls both houses of congress and the White House.

California: Barbara Boxer v. Republican Carly Fiorina. In most polls, Boxer has a 2-5 point advantage. However, in the most recent poll, Fiorina showed a 2 point lead. Although I would give Boxer a slight edge, it's still open for the taking for Fiorina... on a few points-- Boxer is not a particularly strong candidate; voter intensity is with the GOP; and Boxer is far more liberal than even California is.

Missouri: (R) Roy Blount v. (D) Robin Carnahan. Most handicappers see this as a toss-up or slight Blount advantage. In Missouri, where Obama's high spending is very unpopular and voter intensity is higher among the GOP, I believe Blount wins this, sans a major campaign blunder.

Colorado: (R) Ken Buck v. (D) Michael Bennet. Although Republican Jane Norton and Democrat Andrew Romanoff still are trying to win their parties nomination, I'm putting the favorites in there. Buck runs 5-7 points ahead of Bennet in recent polling. Because Buck is not the establishment Republican and is backed by Tea Party activists, I think Buck has a slight advantage against incumbent and known light-weight Bennet. Lean pickup for the GOP.

Illinois: (R) Mark Kirk and (D) Alexi Giannulious have each ran less than grand campaigns thus far. Giannulious' family bank has tanked, and much of it failed when the Democrat was running the bank. On the other hand, Kirk has embellished his military service (why do they do this?), which makes him look less than trustworthy. This figures to be a battle of who can make the least amount of mistakes from here on it. In an ordinary year, the Democrat political machine would allow the Democrat to win easily. But this is no ordinary year. Tossup.

Indiana: (R) Dan Coats is beating (D) Brad Ellsworth by around 20 points. In a seat held by a Democrat for the past several years, this is a big pickup for the GOP.

Washington: (D) Patty Murray is up against (R) Dino Rossi. In most polls, Murray leads a few points. Rossi has led recently in one or two. Even though this is a Democrat-leaning state and the incumbent is a Democrat with money, this is no lock. As I said above, all of the voter intensity is for the GOP. In an off year election like 2010, history shows the party in the minority almost always gains seats. And since Rossi is a formidable candidate, and with Democrats struggling with policy in DC, there's a decent chance at an upset here. Leans Murray.

Nevada: (D) Senate Leader Harry Reid remains in a fight for his political life. He is still extremely unpopular in his state. Evenso, he has a ton of money, as well as support from the unions and Washington. That said, he is still the underdog to upstart Tea Partier Sharron Angle. This figures to get dirty because that's the only way Reid can win an election anymore--- tear down an opponent.

Florida: (R) Marco Rubio will be the GOP nominee. Turncoat Charlie Crist turned to being an Independent after promising to stay with the GOP. This was because of politics, not beliefs. He was getting trounced by Rubio in GOP polling. The two are running neck and neck, being that many Democrats will support him, as liberal Kendrick Meek has no chance of winning. If Crist won, he hasn't said if he would caucus with the GOP or Democrats. I'd still say it's leaning Rubio's way.

Pennsylvania: (R) Pat Toomey will take on (D) Joe Sestak. This is rated as a tossup. I sound like a broken record here-- With more Democrats than Republicans, there lies Sestak's advantage. However, Toomey is seen as the stronger candidate and has been polling several points above Sestak. Leans GOP pickup.

Delaware: (R) Mike Castle is a shoe-in to take VP Biden's old senate seat. GOP pickup.

North Dakota: (R) John Hoeven is also a shoe-in to take a seat from the Democrats. GOP pickup.

Ohio: (R) Rob Portman is trying to save the GOP seat for retiring Voinovich. He's neck and neck with both Democrats vying to beat him. If the GOP has a big night, Portman should retain this GOP seat. Slight GOP advantage.