One of the chief economic (and therefore political) indicators are gas prices. When gas prices get high, who gets the blame? Remember back in the mid 2000's, how the liberal left accused the Bush Administration of having bad energy policy, therefore making gas prices in the 3 dollar range? As I said then, and will say now, there's only so much a president can do to affect gas prices. There are too many factors an American president has no control over that can aversely affect gas prices. The biggest one is global unrest; drilling down further, Mideast unrest. Since so much of the worlds outflow of oil comes from many of these countries, this can cause panic in the markets. Until things stabilize in places such as Libya, gas may even go higher, especially as we start to enter the high drive months of the Summer. A few random thoughts on energy policy, what a president can do, and political fallout:
- Any positive press to the oil markets will drive speculators away. Remember in 08 when President Bush made proclamations of more drilling? The prices went down dramatically in 2 days.
- Any signs of more drilling does more for the psyche of the market short term (ie- more oil will soon come) as well as the long term (ie- actually more supply for our country).
- Moratorium's on drilling KILLS the psyche and therefore drives the speculators to raise prices of oil and bet on the long. Obama did our country or the oil job force no favors by saying no drilling after the oil spill last Spring.
- I'm willing to not blame Obama totally for higher oil prices. He can only do so much with all the tension in the middle east.
- Politically, Obama will be toast in '12 (or at least very vulnerable) if prices remain in the 3-4 dollar per gallon range for gas. The fact is, this affects every industry in our country. Fair or unfair, this would be the political reality.
