So, here is my take on Palin, starting with the questions/counters:
- Question: Her limited time in government can be a concern. With less than 2 years as an executive of the State of Alaska, her national resume is fairly thin. One of the issues is the ability to step in and be president if needed. That may cause concern, as 25% polled over the past 24 hours believe she would be ready.
- Counter: Barack Obama, running at the top of his ticket, has about the same amount of experience as Palin. In reality, Obama has been running for President a year and a half into his first term as Senator. Plus, he's at the top of his ticket, Palin is #2. So although the experience thing might be somewhat muted for the McCain camp in choosing Palin, it doesn't totally dissuade the argument, as Obama is just as green as Palin.
- Question: Usually one of the top 3 or 4 reasons on selecting a mate is if they would help carry a particular state, usually their own. Well, there were some Alaska polls that had it fairly close for Obama and a state we was planning on putting money into. Even with the tide rolling against the GOP, I believe McCain would be safe in AK, even if Palin wasn't on the ticket, just makes it more of a slam dunk for those 3 EV (Electoral Votes).
- Counter: Although she will ensure an already red state for McCain, she may add some extra might to over Western states. This includes Colorado. We have a huge conservative base here, primarily in the Colorado Springs area. With this, it will get many social conservatives extra momentum to try to help the GOP carry this state. Having the influential James Dobson fully on board now, only helps. Also, if you look at Rust belt states as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc. her credentials as a card carrying NRA and hockey Mom only plays into this region.
- Question: The debate poses a question for the VP's. Biden is an experienced, fiesty debater. Many in the beltway believe that Biden will walk over Palin the way Gore was supposed to (and never did) walk over W in 2000.
- Counter: Palin is a fighter. She won't let someone outdo her. Plus, she will look great on TV. She can't be cornered as a partisan, being that she has beat back the GOP corrupt establishment in Alaska. Also, if Biden looks to be the know it all (think the first debate between Gore and W in 00), he will look like the class bully. Also, Palin looks MUCH better than Biden on TV. If you don't think this counts, you're fooling yourself.
- Question: Without experience on the national scene, will it overwhelm her? Will there be a freudian slip? Who Knows?
- Counter: This is a big question that nobody knows. Of course, Biden is the master at slipups and gaffes.
- Revs up the base. With a pro-life, NRA, economic conservative (taxes, wasteful spending), support of our military, she has the full backing of all conservatives that really matter. Think Rush, Hannity, Ingraham, Dobson, Krauthammer, Kristol, Levin. Think Rush and his 20+ million listeners a week don't matter? Remember Bush's plan for wanting Harriet Myers as his SC nominee, or his Immigration policy? These conservative thinkers helped make these Bush decisions very unpopular and helped defeat them on arrival.
- Maybe dent the Woman vote that went for Hillary. We aren't expecting much, but don't need much. The most recent poll (taken before the Palin pick), said 52% of Hillary backers are now on board with Obama, 21-25% with McCain, and the rest are undecided or won't vote. Now, there have been 3 or four polls that I can think of that had these similar numbers (Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Fox News, Gallup). Even if McCain gets 10-15%, that might be enough to swing the election in his favor. Remember, Reagan was the last person to get many of these conservative democrats. He didn't need much to make it a 49-1 state massacre of Mondale.
- Adds real reform to McCain's agenda. McCain has been known as a reformer to many. He hates wasteful government spending, even in his days in the House. In fact, he voted against the first Bush tax cuts in protest of all of the wasteful spending. Adding Palin, who is best known as someone who takes on the establishment, brandishes McCain as very serious in wanting to really change things up in Washington. Palin took on corruption in the House and Senate (Don Young and Ted Stevens), challenged, as Commissioner of Ethics of Oil and Gas in Alaska, the Republican corruption. And on it goes....
- Piggy-backing on the last point, she is not partisan. Conservative yes, partisan, no. America will love this if she sells it correctly.
- She is pro-life. Can anything be more important than this? Over 90% of babies who will have Down Syndrome, get killed in the womb. Well, she is one of the 10%. God bless her. In an election where you have a candidate as radical as they come (see earlier posts on Obama's abortion positions), there is clear distinction here. I like Giuliani, but always thought it would be tough to pull the lever for him if he were the GOP nominee. Even against Obama. That's how strongly I believe this issue is to me.
- Palin is not boring. The beltway consensus was that Pawlenty would have been a "boring" pick. Safe, but boring. To a lesser extent, same for Romney ( I disagree with that assessment, as I liked Romney a great deal). But Palin was a sexy pick. Just as Bobby Jindal would have been. New to the scene, having new ideas, etc.
McCain's camp has spent so much time ripping Obama as not ready, too thinly experienced, etc. Now they choose someone with probably the least experience of them all. And Obama picks someone with experience.
Obama hits McCain on policies of old, no change. Now McCain picks someone with change truly in her arsenal, someone fresh who Obama says he is. And yet, Obama chooses someone of old, experienced politics as usual in Biden.
These are just thoughts off the top of my head. More to come as time goes on. We'll see if this is a good pick or not.
