As of March 11th, there is probably at best a 50/50 chance of reconciliation going through on the healthcare bill. Now that the Democrats don't have the necessary votes in the Senate, they are going to use the parliamentary procedure of the nuclear option (reconciliation) to move forward. The problem is, the House of Representatives has to vote on the Senate's bill in order for it to pass. There no longer can be a merging of the House and Senate Bills, now that the Senate can't muster 60 votes to sustain a possible filibuster. Because of this, the House has to go along with what the Senate bill contains. The importance of this is all of the pro-life Democrats who only voted for the House bill last time because of the Stupak (Bart Stupak) amendment stating that no public funds can be used for abortion, cannot possibly be included in the Senate bill. So Stupak and other conservative Democrats are most likely not going to vote "yea" on Healthcare reform, as they did last time around.
So in addition to the other 25 or so Democrats who voted "nay" last vote in November to make the passage at 220-215, the numbers look upside down at this point for Democrats. When you look at the 220 who voted for Obamacare in the House in November, 2 members have retired, one has died, and the sole Republican is switching to a "nay" vote. In the other hand, one previous "nay" vote (Eric Massa- D) has left the House on ethical charges of groping a staffer. So because of these defections, Democrats still need 216 to pass it. As of many reports, there are about 200-203 who have said yes, and many of the persuadable Democrats teetering. Because of all of this, the likelihood of it passing is less than 50%. However, in the vastly unpopular Cap and Trade bill last year, Speaker Pelosi was about 20 votes short of passage the day before the vote. Because of her strong arming and dealing, she was able to muscle it through by 3 votes. So Republicans and skeptics alike, are not underestimating Pelosi's potential pull on unsure Democrats.
One more caveat to throw in the ringer- Liberals who have demanded a single payer public plan or else they would flee, are starting to bark. As of now, we know Dennis Kucinic is a "nay" vote because the bill doesn't go far enough. The Hispanic, Black, and Progressive Caucuses in the Democrat party are all whining that they may change their vote on protest. But not many serious thinkers really think Pelosi can't or won't get them in lockstep, especially if the bill is close.
Last thing to address- Many in the media and many Democrats have stated that the Hyde Amendment (disallowing public funds for abortion, except in rape, incest, etc.) makes it impossible for public funds to be used for abortions. This is plainly untrue. There are several provisions which indeed make them available. This includes Obama's 11 Billion dollar plan in the bill that would go toward community and Health Centers. Although it doesn't say these funds would be for abortion, it doesn't say that they CANNOT be used for abortions. There are a few other tricks in the bill that allow back end ways to allow funds to be used for abortion. In case Democrats think only Republicans think this is the case, here's a few remarks from Democrats regarding the current Senate bill:
Tim Holden (D-Penn) "I will not vote for the Senate bill," Holden said. "It makes significant cuts to Medicare and Medicaid ... and the restrictions on (federal funding for) abortion are not as strong."
Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) "Last fall, I worked to pass legislation to bring needed changes to our health care system, while putting in place strict prohibitions on the use of taxpayer funding for abortion. The House will soon take up this issue again. When there is a final piece of legislation, I will take the time needed to review the bill and determine how I will vote. However, my overall position is unchanged. Health care reform is critically important for our nation, and I support efforts to enact changes to our system - if those changes are done the right way. But I'm firm in my commitment that I won't support legislation that provides federal funding for abortion."
Joe Donnolly (D-IN) "language on abortion is a "fatal flaw." I would not vote for it," he said. He figures there will be a vote within a month or so. The abortion language is unpopular with "a significant" number of congressmen. It has the potential to kill the bill, he said.
Dan :Lipinski (D-Ill) His advisor: "No. Congressman Lipinski will not vote for a health care bill that provides federal funding for abortion."
