Telltales of GOP landslide

Since most in the country know that there will be a GOP tsunami on November 2nd, let's take a look at some races that give supporting evidence to this theory:

• CA Senate- Republican Carly Fiorina within striking distance (around 3-5 pts) against three term incumbent Barbara Boxer in a liberal state.
• WA Senate- Republican Dino Rossi. He's still the underdog, but if he has a chance this year (polls are saying he's still in it, although losing some ground), things will look good for the GOP.
• Penn Senate- In this open seat, Republican Pat Toomey is beating Democrat Joe Sestak fairly easily (around 9-12 pts). This with a state that has over a million more registered Democrats in the state.
• Penn Governor- Republican Tom Corbett is beating his Democrat challenger pretty handily (10-14 pt range).
• Ohio Governor- Personal favorite Jon Kasich is winning big.
• Ohio Senate- Republican Rob Portman has this one in the bag.
• Wisconsin Senate- Republican challenger Ron Johnson has a real shot of knocking off liberal incumbent Russ Feingold. The latest polls show political novice Johnson with a slight lead.
• Wisconsin Governor- The GOP challenger is winning big as of last count.
  

In the past few election cycles, the GOP's strategy was to dominate the South, compete in the Rust Belt States and Southwest, and survive in the Northeast and West Coast. If you look at this election cycle, things are changing to come extent in these regions.

• Republicans are dominating the Rust Belt States. As mentioned above in Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races. Also, the GOP is primed to take a few congressional seats from the Dems. Also, Ohio and Wisconsin are also looking good for the GOP in the Gubernatorial, Senate, and congressional races.
• Republicans are competing in West Coast races. See CA Governor and Senate races; Washington Senate race; Oregon Governor race.
• Purple State Colorado is turning against Obama. Senate race leans Republican, as well as 3 currently held Democrat congressional districts. This includes my district, where Democrat Betsy Markey is on her political deathbed! Also, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada is still in the fight of his political life. Despite the union support and a ton of money, he still could very well go down in November!
  
• Northeast- Although this still isn't fertile ground for the GOP, there's some positive showings. The GOP will potentially pick up a few Democrat congressional seats in New York. They already won the senate seat in Massachusetts (Scott Brown); have a strong challenge in Connecticut for Senate; the GOP Senate candidate leads in New Hampshire; the GOP candidate in Delaware trails by only 10 (this is good for Delaware).

All this evidence points to more than 39 House districts being turned to the GOP. This would mean they would take control of the House! Away, satan.... I mean Nancy Pelosi. I'm guessing the GOP will pick up between 43-48 House Seats. This number could swell to 60, but I don't want to count my chickens before they've hatched.

As for the Senate, I still don't see the GOP retaking the majority. They need to take 10 seats back. This would really require an inside straight, basically running the table. Although the chances may be slim, in tide elections, all of the close calls go for the party with momentum (see '94 for GOP and '06 for Dems).

Here's my guesses on the 10 contested senate seats that currently belong to Dems, plus a few more wildcards. First four are no brainers (ND, Ind, Ark, Penn); next three are teneous (CO, Ill, Wisc); Nevada is the crown jewel; next two I'm not sure will happen (CA, WA); next two aren't on radars (WV, Conn), but should they be?; last one is the biggest wildcard (Lieberman and Nelson seats)~

• North Dakota. Slam dunk for GOP. Popular Governor John Hoeven leads by about 40 pts. Even if Democrat Byron Dorgan doesn't retire, Hoeven still wins. +1
• Indiana. Another easy win for GOP'er Dan Coats. He's up by at least 15 pts. +2
• Arkansas. Republican John Boozman leads Democrat Blanche Lincoln by as many as 35 pts, average being 20 pts. Another easy pickup. +3
• Pennsylvania. Although I wouldn't bet my life on it, GOP candidate Pat Toomey should win here. He's the better candidate and the polls support this claim. +4
  
• Colorado. In all recent polls, Republican Ken Buck leads incumbent Michael Bennet. Although anything can happen, this is Buck's race to lose. +5
• Illinois. In this Democrat state, corruption rules. When corruption rules, political bodies get turned over. With weak candidate Giannoulius, this Democrat is in serious trouble. I give a little pause because this is still a Democrat leaning state. Still, with the tide rolling, I see GOP'er Mark Kirk winning. Not totally confident though +6
• Wisconsin. As explained above, Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold. I believe that Feingold is just simply too liberal for this toss-up state (unless you're in Madison). Close, but Johnson wins if I had to put money on it. +7
• Nevada. Still not sure Republican Sharron Angle can pull this out with Reid's get out the vote and union support, plus a ton of money. Nonetheless, he's so despised in this state that his son doesn't put his own last name on advertising. Now there's a vote of confidence for you dad! I'd say toss-up, to lean Angle. +8 (maybe)
  
• California. Fiorina is a good candidate, but in a liberal state, Boxer still has the edge. But if this is really a "wave" election, we may see the GOP going to the polls at such a rate that it may overwhelm the built in Democrat advantage. Still an uphill climb. Lean Democrat retention. +0.
• Washington. Rossi is also a good candidate, but is starting to lose momentum to incumbent Patty Murray. Rossi needs to hold his own in King County (Seattle area) to have a chance. +0.
• West Virginia. Despite the popular Democrat Governor Joe Manchin entering the senate race, he's now only leading by 5 pts. Reason being? This state cannot stand Obama or his elite liberalism. And with Manchin probably rubber stamping Obama's agenda, there's a chance the state may turn from a candidate they like. Although Manchin is still the favorite, I can almost see this state flipping to the GOP before CA or WA does.
• Connecticut. This race is the Democrat Attorney General Dick Blumenthal's to win, despite his lying about serving in Vietnam and getting caught. WWE Founder Linda McMahon (although an unconventional candidate) has a punchers chance. In a highly liberal state, the tide must really pour in if she ends up winning. If she does win, she'll likely be the 11th or 12th GOP pickup, as it'll be a continuation of a dominant GOP night.
• Joe Lieberman. If the GOP is one vote short, he may change his alliances and caucus with the GOP. If he's guaranteed the Chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee, there's a slight chance he'd do it. Remember, he backed John McCain in '08!
• Ben Nelson. He's the now unpopular senator from Nebraska. After his Obamacare vote, he was about the most unpopular person in this heavily conservative state. So to save his own hyde, he me switch to the GOP in anticipation of a tough '12 senate contest.

And there you have it. Once again, I'm much more confident in the House flipping to the GOP, than the senate. But, with all of these scenarios, I'd say there's a 25 percent chance of it happening. Time will tell. As long as Obama remains nuclear active, the GOP is going to give the Democrats a bloodbath on November 2nd!