Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama extending lead in battleground states

Things haven't looked so bleak for the McCain campaign. More on him in another post. The fact is, Obama is riding the winds of a economic crisis. It's a political gold mine that keeps on giving for Obama. As long as it stays on Page One, it helps him. It's nothing he's saying or did that increases peoples thoughts on him, it's that we have a Republican President and if things aren't going peachy, the party will got blamed.

  • Quinnipiac state polls have Obama blistering McCain in a few key states. If these polls are closely true, game over.
  • Florida- Obama is up 50-43. Obama has spent heavily here, and McCain hasn't spent a dime here. It is telling though, that there was an extreme oversampling of Democrats and blacks in this poll. And an undersampling of Cubans (reliably Republican). In my mind, I don't believe this poll until I see a few others like it.
  • Pennsylvania- After being neck and neck, all of a sudden Obama is up 54-39. This isn't just an outlier, it's wrong. There is NO way Obama wins this state by 15. Not even close. This state, if Obama wins, will be no more than 5 points. However, big numbers like this only help a candidate.
  • Ohio- 51-42 for Obama. Again, this poll is not to be believed unless there is another poll to support this.

In summation, the winds are very heavily at the back of Obama, and he has gained clearly on many battleground states. But these huge leads outside the margin of error truly cannot be believed. They just can't.