Right now, if I were a betting man, I'd say 75-25 for Obama. But you have to understand that 25% can be hit at any time. Did anybody give the Giants a chance to beat the Patriots? I'd say less than 25% did.
So, what has to happen on election day for McCain to still win? Here are some key points looking at the political landscape and at some key states:
- There are still many, some polls say as much as 18% undecided voters. Most pundits expect the majority to break for McCain. Reason being? If one is on the fence with Obama still, they most likely aren't very comfortable with him. Also, there are NO undecided blacks. And when you factor McCain's usually 15 point advantage among whites, the numbers say McCain will get the vast majority of the undecideds.
- Joe The Plumber- Many independents are economically conservative and socially liberal. Since social issues are not as front as center this year (gay marriage, abortion, poverty), economics take rein. And many of the independents and soft democrats worry about the government taking more of their money. And Obama admitted as much by wanting to "spread the wealth" around. This isn't popular to most Americans. Fact is, Obama will raise dividends, capital gains, on the majority of small businesses (who fall under the "rich" category), estate tax..... And don't forget the welfare handout- 40% of the 95% that Obama is promising tax cuts to, aren't even paying federal income taxes. This is essentially a government handout, eg- socialism...
States to focus on Tuesday:
- Ohio- Obama leads most polls now, around the average of 4%. I don't believe it's 4% though. I still think, call me crazy, that McCain will win here. If he doesn't, which is very possible, the numbers don't add up to McCain winning the Electoral College.
- Florida- As Ohio, Obama is showing a lead. But again, I still think McCain will win. The absentee ballots in Florida, which historically go around 70-30 for Republicans, aren't taken into account in most polls. This is still part of the South, albeit its own beast. Alas, I think McCain will still win. As I said in earlier posts, Giuliani (national security hawks), Gov. Crist (Centrists), Senator Lieberman (Jews) will help tremendously.
- North Carolina- Once again, McCain needs this state. He's running behind, but again, he has a great chance at still winning here. Like I pointed out a few months ago in a post, blacks and the university triangle around Raleigh and Durham, will come out in droves for Obama. But NC is still a GOP bastion and has a huge military influence.
- Virginia- A few months ago, I never thought Obama would hold a commanding lead. But he is showing a 6-7 point lead. GOP has won 13 of 14 presidential elections, so the GOP has hope still, at least historically.
- Colorado- This looks like it's going to Obama. There's only 9 EV here, but it would be a huge loss for McCain.
- Missouri- Toss up. Still McCain has to be favored here.
- Nevada- Toss up. Obama is slightly favored. Only 5 EV here.
- New Mexico- Wind at Obama's back, he should win.
- Pennsylvania- This is the first state that Bush didn't win. The above 8 were red states in 04. If McCain can stun Obama here, that would be the opening he needs.
- New Hampshire- Obama has the edge, but McCain has a big following here. 70-30 Obama in my mind. Only 4 EV here.
All in all, here's the scenario I can see if McCain can win:
If McCain can keep Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida, which I think he can, he has a chance. Keeping these states, he can lose Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), and New Hampshire (4) that Bush won in 04. The big kicker is McCain HAS to win Pennsylvania to make up for these losses. Possible, but it's like McCain getting an inside straight. If all of this happens, McCain wins 273-265 (270 Electoral Votes is the magic number).
