Obama is in the clear lead now nationally, and is looking stronger in a few important states. This has to do completely with the economic crisis. And despite whose fault it is (I believe all parties involved are at fault), the party in power at the top will get blamed. And to some regard, rightfully so. But of course the Democrat controlled congress has a whopping 17% approval rating this week, so they shouldn't be let off the hook either.
A few updated polls:
Wash Post/ABC Poll: Obama leads 52-43. This is the biggest lead for either side to date. Yet this is a heavily skewered poll. It's 38 Dems to 28% Republicans polled. Because of this, and matching to other polls, this seems to be an outlier.
Rasmussen: Obama leads 49-47. I'd say this is spot on. Like I've stated before, Rasmussen is clearly the most accurate of all polls. I'd believe anywhere between a 1-4 Obama lead.
Gallup: Obama leads 47-44. Pretty accurate.
A few new state polls and/or my prognosis as of now in order of interest and importance....
Colorado: Obama leads in about every recent poll now. Some have him up here as much as 7 points. That's inaccurate. However, Rasmussen has it a 2 point lead, which seems reasonable. It's still going to be a barn burner here. I'm a little less convinced of a McCain victory than I was 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's still 50-50 at this point, as there are still 72,000 more registered Republicans in the state. Will come down to independents, which is slightly less than Republicans, and slightly more than Democrats.
New Hampshire: McCain gets his first lead here, 49-47. This is great news for McCain. Like I've stated repeatedly, this is the one New England State that can go to McCain. He has a good chance. The independents love McCain, and now the base is shored up with Palin.
Florida: Rasmussen has McCain still up 51-46 here. Although a few polls have it tighter. Once again, McCain will win here I believe. A new Hispanic poll in FL says McCain is up 51-41. If that's right, game over. Obama has to dominate all minorities in this state to have a chance. Although Cubans cannot stand the socialist minded Democrats, which fits right into Obama's stances on the government. Reminds them too much of the hated Castro.
Pennsylvania: Obama leads within the margin of error. If Obama doesn't win here, I say game, set, match for McCain. This state to me is more interesting than the others because Clinton trounced Obama here, and it's been reported that many conservative Democrats are scared to death of Obama. But when you vote Democrat your whole life, do you change at this point? Philly and Pittsburgh will vote heavily for Obama, especially with expected high black turnout. But the rest of the state is for McCain to take. Obama has the edge, but wouldn't be surprised if McCain pulled the shocker.
Michigan: The second most interesting state to me. I'm SHOCKED Obama leads by 4-5 points here. As I explained in a previous entry, with Obama's ties to a convicted mayor of Detroit, a very unpopular Governor, and many social conservative Democrats (home of Reagan Democrats), I'd expect McCain to do better here at this point. If Romney were McCain's choice, it may have made a difference, being that Romney has deep roots here. Obama has the edge, especially with blacks in Detroit, and union workers who are reliant on government intervention and help. However, the Detroit suburbs could not stand the indicted Kilpatrick, so will he help bring Obama down? Probably not.
Wisconsin: Hair whisker close the past two elections. Obama is up by a couple points. I see him winning by roughly .05-2 points here. A lot of pasty white liberals, plus a university town so liberal and whacky, they rival Berkeley and Boulder. Note: That is not a compliment to be compared to those places.
Ohio: Still McCain's to lose. He's up a few points still. If Obama wins here, he will win the election easily.
New Mexico: Within the margin of error, but consistently with Obama ahead. With many Hispanics dependent on the government, a socialist type politician, read Obama, should get them in droves. It's Obama's to lose here.
Nevada: Similar to NM, more registered Dems here, but McCain still has the edge. Living in a neighboring state also helps here.
Virginia: Very close, with McCain hanging on by a thread. McCain has to win here. If not, he has to steal a Michigan or Pennsylvania. Northern Virginia trending Dems, but the southerners are still strong GOP country. I still say McCain wins, with help from the heavy backing of vets.
Missouri: McCain has been ahead in every poll I've seen, usually around 5 points at least. He should win here, roughly by 4-6 points in my opinion. It's been said over and over that the GOP doesn't win the Presidency without the Show Me State.
North Carolina: McCain still leads by around 3-6 points in most polls. It's McCain's to lose. However, Obama will draw huge black support and university support.
Minnesota: Per usual, the race is neck and neck, ala 00 and 04. Yet the Dems seem to win here by a couple points. Being how far off liberal and deranged the Minneapolis area is, I'm shocked Republicans can even come this close.
Oregon: Most polls say Obama is up 4-7 points. He should win here easily. I'd say anywhere between 5-10 points.
New Jersey: Per usual, there will be a few polls that show it close. It won't be a blowout, as many Democrats here are socially liberal, but also want our country protected (they will vote Obama and pray that he shows strength).
Indiana: Polls show McCain up 5-8 points. Obama is spending heavily in his neighboring state to try to close in. Tall order, not happening unless it's a blowout.
Easy street for McCain, to varying degrees: Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alaska, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Wyoming
Easy street for Obama, to varying degrees: California, Washington, Illinois, New York, Mass, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, DC
All in all, at this point, I'd say Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Virginia will be the bellweather for this election. Whomever can grab three of these five will most likely win, if this election remains close. But like I state above, if Pennsylvania or Michigan turn red, or Ohio or Florida turn blue, those WILL be game changers.
Speaking of close, it won't be close if.....
Obama gets Ohio. That means Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania are safe for Obama because Ohio is more conservative than the others.
Obama gets Florida. Unlikely, but if he pulls it out, McCain's math to 270 gets very difficult, if not impossible.
Obama gets Colorado and Virginia. These account for 22 votes, essentially the same as Ohio and Florida.
McCain gets Michigan or Pennsylvania. If so, that means Ohio, and probably Wisconsin go his way as well, as they are more conservative.
McCain retains the Western States: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. If so, Obama's only hopes would be to steal Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, and hope he holds everything else in place.
At this point, I'd call it 55-45 Obama as to who wins. With so many variables left- fallout of crisis, McCain postponing his campaign, the debates, potential gaffes, etc... In all honesty, if Obama doesn't win, that would be the ultimate embarrassment for Democrats. Republicans have several nooses around them: An unpopular, albeit successful war going on, sour economy, 2 straight terms with one party in the White House, and so on.
I'll make further predictions as events plays out, and continue to update my poll predictions.
