Of course, who really cares about national polls. They give you a picture, but state by state gives us a better picture. Here's what I see from some hot, contested states:
Iowa- Obama will win. I don't have much doubt. This is made up of a very liberal vs. very conservative state. Liberals love Obama, conservatives are luke-warm on McCain. So even though Bush won in 04, I see it flipping back to the Dems. Obama wins
Minnesota- Obama will win. Surprisingly, Bush barely lost in 00 and 04. However, I don't think Obama will lose. It'll be within 3-4 points I think. Obama wins
Ohio- McCain will win. There are too many conservative Democrats (Reagan democrats) that aren't too sure of Obama. Obviously, Obama will be big in the University (Columbus), as well as Cincinnati and especially Cleveland that have big black turnout. However, the rest of the state favors McCain. Should be within 3-4 points for McCain. McCain wins
Pennsylvania- If I had to pick, I'd say Obama, but in a squeaker. Just because his black turnout will be HUGE in Philly and Pittsburgh. However, just as Ohio, many conservative Dems will be scared of Obama and his liberalism. And McCain will dominate in the West and Plains. Obama wins
Michigan- Again, very close. If I had to pick, I'd say McCain will win. Although Obama is ahead in every poll I've seen lately, I just think McCain will sell well in Michigan. Same conservative Democrats will back McCain. Also, Kwame Kilpatrick, the mayor of Detroit, is now in jail for many charges. The reason this means something is because just 16 months ago, Obama supported Kilpatrick, giving him a big hug, saying he's "a great mayor". This will hurt Obama very much in the Detroit suburbs. Plus, the blacks in Detroit will feel betrayed after Obama renounced Kilpatrick today. Finally, the Governor, Granholm, is VERY unpopular in her state. But I'd even be more confident if Romney were the VP, as his Dad was very popular as Michigan's Governor. Right now, I'd say 55-45% chance for McCain. McCain wins (maybe)
Florida- McCain will win. I don't think it'll be close. More like 04 than 00. I'd guess a 4-6 point victory. Lieberman and Giuliani, as well as Charlie Crist will help McCain. And the Cubans in Miami, who already vote Republican in large numbers, are terrified of Obama. Giuliani and Crist will play well to the moderates, Lieberman to the socially liberal Jews, but strong on security. And Palin will rack in the conservatives in Tampa and the Panhandle. If Hillary were the candidate, it would be a 2000 too close to call. McCain wins
New Hampshire- I'd say McCain, but barely. McCain will win big numbers of independents. He's hugely popular there as an independent thinker. Independents in NH are much bigger numbers than anywhere else. This is really the only New England State that even has a chance to be in the GOP column. Lieberman will also be a help there. If this were a different year and the GOP didn't look so unpopular, McCain might win this state going away. As is, very close, but I'd still say McCain. McCain wins
Colorado- Now my home state. Before Palin was announced, I'd say 50-50. Now? McCain, but once again, barely. And I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won. Obama's numbers in Denver and Boulder will be huge. Denver suburbs will be a toss up. McCain will win huge in Colorado Springs. Very close, but McCain for now. McCain wins (maybe)
Virginia- McCain. It'll be close, but Democrats haven't gotten the presidential nod in Virginia since '64. They may choose Democrats lower on the ballot, but I don't think it'll flip. The huge black population will be offset by the huge retired military. McCain by 2 points here. McCain wins
North Carolina- Although Bush blew Kerry out after Dems thought they had a chance in 2004, will it be any different? I think so, but McCain still wins here by 5 points. However, McCain will have to show up here to defend his turf, which won't help. Obama will close in because of the big black turnout and the Raleigh-Durham school turnout. McCain wins
Nevada- McCain by 3-4 points here. The culinary union will be huge for Obama. But McCain is usually up here, according to the polls. Plus, he's in neighboring Arizona, so he's a Westerner. Very close race. McCain wins
Wisconsin- Obama wins here. Amazingly, Bush barely lost in 04. One of the closest 2-3 states last time around. However, just like Iowa, Obama has the tide rolling for him. He has a HUGE university base in Madison, plus pasty white liberals. Fairly close, but Obama gets the nod. Obama wins
New Mexico- I think Obama will barely win this state, just as McCain barely wins Nevada. Just like Nevada, there's more registered Dems than Republicans, but these Dems will stay home. They are more Indian and Mexican Democrats, who rely heavily on the government to help them. Plus, Bill Richardson, its Governor, will help Obama out here. Will be 3-4 point win. Obama wins
New Hampshire- I'd say McCain, but barely. McCain will win big numbers of independents. He's hugely popular there as an independent thinker. Independents in NH are much bigger numbers than anywhere else. This is really the only New England State that even has a chance to be in the GOP column. Lieberman will also be a help there. If this were a different year and the GOP didn't look so unpopular, McCain might win this state going away. As is, very close, but I'd still say McCain. McCain wins
Colorado- Now my home state. Before Palin was announced, I'd say 50-50. Now? McCain, but once again, barely. And I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won. Obama's numbers in Denver and Boulder will be huge. Denver suburbs will be a toss up. McCain will win huge in Colorado Springs. Very close, but McCain for now. McCain wins (maybe)
Virginia- McCain. It'll be close, but Democrats haven't gotten the presidential nod in Virginia since '64. They may choose Democrats lower on the ballot, but I don't think it'll flip. The huge black population will be offset by the huge retired military. McCain by 2 points here. McCain wins
North Carolina- Although Bush blew Kerry out after Dems thought they had a chance in 2004, will it be any different? I think so, but McCain still wins here by 5 points. However, McCain will have to show up here to defend his turf, which won't help. Obama will close in because of the big black turnout and the Raleigh-Durham school turnout. McCain wins
Nevada- McCain by 3-4 points here. The culinary union will be huge for Obama. But McCain is usually up here, according to the polls. Plus, he's in neighboring Arizona, so he's a Westerner. Very close race. McCain wins
Wisconsin- Obama wins here. Amazingly, Bush barely lost in 04. One of the closest 2-3 states last time around. However, just like Iowa, Obama has the tide rolling for him. He has a HUGE university base in Madison, plus pasty white liberals. Fairly close, but Obama gets the nod. Obama wins
New Mexico- I think Obama will barely win this state, just as McCain barely wins Nevada. Just like Nevada, there's more registered Dems than Republicans, but these Dems will stay home. They are more Indian and Mexican Democrats, who rely heavily on the government to help them. Plus, Bill Richardson, its Governor, will help Obama out here. Will be 3-4 point win. Obama wins
Washington and Oregon- Forget about it, Obama will blow McCain away in both of these states.
Entire South McCain will win, despite Obama getting big black turnouts in places like Mississippi and Louisiana.
In summation, this race will again come down to just a few states. As seen above, McCain will have to defend more red states than Obama will. However, Obama will have to take some red states. McCain just simply has to defend.
Like in 04, when it came down to close states as Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa (Bush wins), and Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Minnesota (Kerry wins), it'll be decided by a select few. I'd guess that the BIGGEST states to watch come November 4th are Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, which were red states; and New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennyslyvania, which were blue states.
If, for instance, Obama plucks Ohio or Florida, the only way McCain wins is if he can take a electoral rich state as Michigan or Pennsylvania. My guess is if Obama takes either Florida or Ohio, he wins. If he doesn't, but takes Virginia AND Colorado, he wins. On the other hand, if McCain can hold Ohio and Florida, if he takes Michigan or Pennsylvania, he wins no matter how many little states Obama takes.
As a Republican in 2004, I liked the map better for Kerry. However, Bush held everything he was supposed to. So it's literally impossible to know what'll happen in 8 weeks. My guess is McCain will win this election, but barely. However, Obama can still win going away and I wouldn't be surprised.
To be continued.....
