Interesting Polls over the past week:
New York: Sienna Poll has Obama 46-41. I don't believe it's this close. Obama will still win by double digits, just maybe not by 20 points like you'd expect. Nonetheless, it's interesting seeing a NY poll anywhere near sniffing distance.
New Jersey: Two polls have 48-45 last week. To an extent, the same thing as New York. Obama would have to do something very bad in order to lose New Jersey. Or McCain will have to over produce expectations. I still see Obama by 7-9 points here. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it became a little tighter the way Bush was able to do in the waning weeks of 00 and 04 by getting within 2-3 points before tailing off.
Minnesota: Rasmussen has it 45-45. A couple others have 47-45 Obama. Obama is still the odds on favorite here. Bush came very close twice, but still lost by 1-3 points. I'd expect the same, even if McCain were to pull ahead. The tide is in the Democrats side this year, especially in a state where Republicans always are competitive, but never seem to cross the finish line.
Wisconsin: Several polls have it within a point or two, some have it dead even. Either way, if Obama loses this state, he's in trouble. With that being said, I expect Obama to eke out a victory here.
Ohio: Polls are all over the place here. A few polls have Obama ahead, but the majority have McCain still ahead. I'd be very surprised if McCain lost here. If he does, Obama wins the election.
Pennsylvania: Most polls are within the margin of error, but I believe Obama still has the edge. Once again, if McCain wins, or pulls resources away from Obama's team, that might be good enough here.
Michigan: Obama is still showing a 2-4 point lead in most polls. I'm a little surprised McCain isn't dead even here. I believe the election may hinge on this state. If McCain pulls it out, it may not matter if Obama flips states such as Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.
Iowa: Most polls have Obama leading outside the margin. Once again, I'd be SHOCKED if McCain came close here, despite Bush winning four years ago.
Colorado: Still a toss-up, with polls being all over the place. I'd still say McCain wins, but it'll be close.
Virginia: McCain still is a little ahead. And once again, I'd be surprised if McCain were to lose, despite the growing Northern Washington suburbs favoring the Democrats.
Nevada: McCain leads most of the polls, but within the margin of error. Obama has a chance, but McCain wins here.
New Mexico: Just like Nevada, but the reverse. Obama should win here.
Florida: McCain will win. Period. Even if we see Obama take a lead, I still don't believe he has a chance here.
