Now that we are almost a week out from the conventions, the polls hasn't really started to clear up yet. The reason? Sarah Palin. She has totally flipped this race on its head. A few interesting points now that she is on the ticket:
- Before she was nominated as VP, McCain was drawing an average of 1,000 at rally's. Over the past 5 days, they drew 5,000 once, and as much as 13,000. They say they are averaging about 10,000. That's Obama-Biden territory.
- We tried getting tickets for Saturday's rally in Colorado Springs, but they were sold out. That's the event that had 13,000.
- As long as the media is still perceived by the majority of the public as crude and rude to Palin, it'll drive the GOP numbers further up. Remember when Clinton rallied after the media was taking it to her? Same thing.
- Palin has not only SAVED the Republican base and got them energized for the first time, but she has the appeal to draw independents and conservative Democrats to the GOP.
And a few polls....... (Caution- Although these numbers look promising for the GOP, if Palin's lure starts wearing off, as well as the convention bounce, the numbers will steady a little more for Obama and be neck and neck again).
- Over all polls taken, McCain for the first time has a higher average than Obama. Many say McCain's not leading yet because of the GOP brand, but it's probably a toss-up at this point.
- Among independents, McCain has opened up a 15 point lead according to Gallup 52-37.
- ABC News/Washington Post poll: McCain ahead by two.
- CNN poll: Tie
- CBS News: McCain up two.
- Gallup: McCain up four
- Gallup (Likely Voters): McCain up 10. (possible outlier, this poll has always been high for McCain compared to others).
- Gender Gap: Women- McCain 46. Men- McCain 52. Bad numbers for Obama. Obama needs to win the women vote by 8-10. He currently leads women by 2-4. That won't get it done. Reason being? Men vote GOP in much larger numbers.
